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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $373.94EOD only
Max Pain
$375.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.88
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.41
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 7/29: 100% beat rate, strong bullish flow, but spot below max pain. Implied moves moderate.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Consistent beat rate and positive flow suggest upside bias, but high IV and near-term pin risk at $375.
✅100% beat rate over 5 quarters, consistent execution.
⚠️Spot below max pain $375, significant 0DTE put volume at $370-$375.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$9.38 (2.6%)
  • 2026-06-29 (5d): ±$11.97 (3.3%)
  • 2026-07-01 (7d): ±$14.60 (4.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d ±2.6%, 7d ±4.0%), back-end flatter.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings, expect 1-2% decay.

Skew: Puts elevated near term, skew steep.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Typically within implied range, beat rate 100%.

Directional bias: Bullish bias given consistent beats and strong flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $356.08/$374.83; 1w $353.48/$377.43
2Max pain pins: $375 (2026-06-24); $380 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive 0DTE call buying at $375 strike (38,995 vol, 16.3x OI)

Aggressive bullish bet near resistance, likely speculative gamma.

Large put buying at $370 and $375 strikes for 0DTE

Hedging or pin action, suggests uncertainty at these levels.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $370.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $395.00 call
Debit: $8.79-$10.75
Max loss: $10.75
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Manage at invalidation level $345.23; roll if tested.
Best captures bullish bias with term structure premium decay.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later dated OTM call to profit from time decay and upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $395.00/$415.00 call spread
Debit: $4.01-$4.90
Max loss: $4.90
Max gain: $15.10
BE: $399.90
Trigger: Exit if spot below $345.23; take profit at max gain.
Direct leveraged bullish play with defined risk, aligned with consistent beats.
Outperforms: Buy call spread to profit from upside move post-earnings with limited loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $360.00/$355.00 put wing and $372.50/$375.00 call wing
Credit: $1.60-$1.96
Max loss: $3.04
Max gain: $1.96
BE: 358.04 / 374.46
Trigger: Adjust if spot tests wings; exit at 50% max gain.
Capitalizes on elevated IV with bullish skew; potential pin risk at $375.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings to collect premium, expecting limited move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-31 $370.00 put + buy $370.00 call
Debit: $33.75-$41.25
Max loss: $41.25
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 328.75 / 411.25
Event-convexity play to capture post-earnings move regardless of direction; IV crush moderate.
Outperforms: Buy volatility ahead of MSFT earnings; 100% beat rate but implied move moderate, pin risk at 375.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pin risk at $375 max pain due to large OI concentration.
!Earnings gap risk: implied move 4% in 7 days, but 35 days out may understate.

What to Watch

?Azure growth and AI revenue guidance.
?Any macro headwinds from tech sector weakness (QQQ -0.42%).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.