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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $379.40EOD only
Max Pain
$387.50
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.81
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+8.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.42
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT 37 days from earnings; 100% beat rate (5/5) but spot below resistance. Near-term IV elevated, longer-term bullish via call walls. GEX/flow alignment supports base confidence of 7.5.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Max pain $380-$390; spot below call OI wall at $450-$525 indicates long-term bullish flows, but near-term risk of pin below $375.
📊100% beat rate (5/5) supports bullish bias.
⚠️SPX below EM2; short vol pressure may persist.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-24 (2d): ±$7.88 (2.1%)
  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$11.33 (3.1%)
  • 2026-06-29 (7d): ±$12.78 (3.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV elevated; 2d expected move ±2.1%, 1w ±3.5%.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-event given long-dated premium.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $350-$370; downside hedging present.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves inline to slightly bullish; 100% beat rate.

Directional bias: Bullish bias post-earnings.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $359.46/$375.21; 1w $354.56/$380.11
2Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-22); $382 (2026-06-24); $390 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $370 and $375 0DTE; high put volume at $367.5 and $370.

Short-covering call buying vs downside hedging.

Strategies

Short Strangle MSFT
Sell 2026-07-31 $350.00 put + sell $390.00 call
Credit: $19.30-$23.60
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $23.60
BE: 326.40 / 413.60
Trigger: Monitor spot near $380; close if trending outside range.
Only eligible candidate; profits from IV crush and time decay near max pain.
Outperforms: Sell $350 put / $390 call, gains from IV decline if spot stays between.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot below max pain and EM2 guardrails; risk of pin to $375-$380.
!Earnings 37 days out; event risk and crush gradual.

What to Watch

?Max pain moves for 6/24 and 6/26.
?Spot crossing $380 for bullish momentum.
?Unusual option activity near earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.