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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $517.53EOD only
Max Pain
$510.00
Next expiry Oct 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.08
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-7.53
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
15
Low premium
P/C OI
0.53
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 2, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

MSFT 75d to earnings (7/29). Strong bullish flow with heavy call buying, but spot near resistance. Historical 100% beat rate favors upside.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Call buying on 5/18 expiries signals near-term bullish bias.
📈Massive call volume on 5/18 $435C (47.8x OI) shows bullish conviction.
⚠️Heavy put buying on 5/15 $422.5P (33x OI) suggests hedging or pinning attempt.
📊Historical 100% beat rate reinforces bullish bias into July.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (75 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-18 (3d): ±$8.30 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-20 (5d): ±$12.43 (2.9%)
  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$14.32 (3.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV ~20% based on 2% expected move; longer-term near VIX 18; normal contango.

Crush estimate: Earnings crush N/A now; event far out.

Skew: Call skew elevated from aggressive upside buying; put demand modest.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; expected moves pre-earnings historically exceeded.

Directional bias: Bullish; 100% beat rate supports upside.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $413.62/$430.22; 1w $409.50/$434.35
2Max pain pins: $400 (2026-05-15); $408 (2026-05-18); $405 (2026-05-20)

Flow Highlights

May 18 weekly $435 call saw 18,315 vol vs 383 OI (47.8x).

Aggressive call buying targeting rally above $435.

May 15 $422.5 put saw 30,431 vol, 33.3x OI.

Put buying may hedge downside ahead of expiry.

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Spot near resistance at $430, potential rejection.
!Event 75d away; theta decay if holding long-dated options.
!VIX 18 moderate; macro risk from tech selloff (QQQ -1.5%).

What to Watch

?Spot holding above $413 (2d EM guardrail)
?Flow continuation on May 18 calls
?Earnings expectations and any pre-earnings drift.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.