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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $419.09EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.98
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 68 days out; front week IV low, term steep; flow strongly bullish net premium $162M but put buying for 5/26 adds caution.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Bullish flow with isolated put hedges.
📊100% beat rate 5/5 quarters
⚠️Unusual put activity for 5/26

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (68 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-26 (4d): ±$5.91 (1.4%)
  • 2026-05-27 (5d): ±$4.70 (1.1%)
  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$11.20 (2.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: ~15% (5/26) to ~30% (6/12-18)

Crush estimate: N/A (no near-term event)

Skew: Call-skewed: put/call OI ratio 0.45, volume ratio 0.29

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not specified; beat rate 100%

Directional bias: Bullish (beat streak, flow)

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $413.87/$423.27
2Max pain pins: $418 (2026-05-22); $412 (2026-05-26); $415 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Massive net premium $162M (bullish)

Strong institutional call buying.

Unusual put buying for 5/26 downside

Hedging ahead of weekend or macro.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call
Debit: $11.11-$13.57
Max loss: $13.57
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock drops below 417.5 or after earnings.
Profits from steep term structure; aligns with bullish flow.
Outperforms: Buy back-month call, sell front-month call at same strike to capture implied volatility premium difference.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $430.00/$440.00 call wing
Credit: $2.46-$3.01
Max loss: $6.99
Max gain: $3.01
BE: 406.99 / 433.01
Trigger: Manage at 50% max profit or if spot approaches wings.
Neutral strategy with theta decay; defined risk suits cautious outlook.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings to profit from time decay in high IV environment.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 68 days out; macro risk; $450-$625 call wall resistance.

What to Watch

?5/26 put OI expansion; spot vs $418 max pain; $420 resistance break.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.