thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSFTReports

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $450.24EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.85
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-35.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-04-29 (15 days). Regime is Normal vol, Pinning gamma, Bullish flow (GEX +$296.8M) — dealers are likely to pin into the $385–$400 area. Best strategy: a directional long-premium (debit straddle or call spread into the 2026-05-01 expiry) to capture a larger-than-expected move, or a defined-risk iron that sells premium outside the EM if you believe the stock will remain pinned. Key risk: a moderate IV re-pricing around the earnings date (IV hump at 17d is large) combined with gap risk on guidance could wipe out expected edge.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Watch the 17d ATM IV (43.1%) vs front-dated IVs (21–28%) — that hump centers earnings and drives both premium and crush magnitude.
📈Large net call premium at $400 (Net $64,841,190) — focus strikes 395–405 for directional bias.
🧭Dealer GEX +$296.8M with pin magnets at $390/$400 — expect pinning behavior into the print.
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-04-29; use the 2026-05-01 (17d) expiries to capture post-print realized moves and the IV hump.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (15 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (17d): ±$29.93 (7.6%) [$363.18 - $423.03]

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-dated IVs are relatively low (1d ATM 21.5% → 10d ATM ~27.6%), then a pronounced jump to 17d ATM 43.1% (clear earnings-driven hump). Back-month IVs settle around low- to mid-30s.

Crush estimate: Estimate ~12–18 vol pts post-earnings (17d ATM 43.1% likely to reprice down toward the 30–33% neighborhood over ensuing weeks).

Skew: Call-heavy premium flow (large net call buys at 400/395/390) and slightly richer OTM call demand; puts are present at lower strikes but flow tilts bullish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters in table)

Avg move vs expected: Recent EPS beats but moves have been contained; last four quarters showed consistent beats (surprises +0.06, +0.13, +0.08, +0.07) — tendency for positive fundamentals without extreme realized moves noted in short-dated EMs.

Directional bias: Upside bias around prints (consistent EPS beats), but dealer pinning and heavy call flow point to asymmetric upside hedging into large OI walls.

Key Levels

1$390.00
2$385.00
3$375.00
4$400.00
5$405.00
6$420.00
7EM: $363.18-$423.03 (17d guardrails)

Flow Highlights

Massive net call premium at $400.00 (Call $73,035,123 / Put $8,193,932 / Net $64,841,190).

Large bullish flow centered at $400 is likely dealer-hedged call buying — dealers will buy stock into upside and hedge by selling calls, supporting pinning into the $395–$405 band.

Concentrated GEX at near-spot strikes: +$34.5M at $390.00 and +$21.7M at $400.00 (pin magnets).

Dealer gamma exposure is strongly positive near spot; this increases the tendency to slow moves away from those strikes (pinning behavior).

Strategies

Long ATM straddle (earnings capture)
Buy 2026-05-01 395 straddle (buy 395C + buy 395P).
Debit: $34.00-$38.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈$357.0 / $433.0
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings if 17d IV stays elevated near current 43.1%; avoid if IV has already collapsed into the print.
The 17d ATM IV = 43.1% implies rich premium; given consistent historical beats and upside flow, a straddle profits if the move materially exceeds EM. Strike 395 is within the available strike list and close to spot.
Outperforms: Actual absolute move around earnings exceeds the 17d EM (~±$29.93) or there is a large gap on guidance.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $390–$400 and realized move is inside EM; or IV collapses before/after entry.
Directionally bullish call spread (defined debit)
Buy 2026-05-01 395/420 call debit spread (long 395C, short 420C).
Debit: $6.50-$9.50
Max loss: $9.50
Max gain: $15.50
BE: ≈$401.5 (using 6.5 cost) to $404.5 (using 9.5 cost)
Trigger: Enter if you have an upside bias and want defined risk; best 5–10 days before earnings while 17d IV remains elevated.
Bullish flow and call buying concentrated around 395–400 plus structural call OI support around 420 make a wide call spread a way to express conviction with limited capital and reduced net-Vega exposure vs a long call.
Outperforms: Moderate-to-large upside move that lands between $410–$420; outperforms a naked call if IV collapses post-print but stock rallies.
Underperforms: No material upside or large downside gap; heavy pinning that prevents rally above breakeven.
Defined-risk iron condor (sell premium outside EM)
Sell 2026-05-01 385/375 put flip and sell 410/420 call flip (sell 385P buy 375P sell 410C buy 420C).
Credit: $1.60-$3.20
Max loss: $8.40
Max gain: $3.20
BE: Lower ≈382.4 / Upper ≈413.2 (using mid credit)
Trigger: Enter 7-3 days before earnings if you believe dealer pinning and bullish flow will keep MSFT inside the EM range; avoid if you expect a big gap or want pure IV-crush capture.
Pinning regime (GEX concentrated at 385/390/395/400) supports selling defined premium outside those pins; structure limits tail risk but collects credit from elevated 17d IV.
Outperforms: Stock remains inside the EM rails ($363–$423) and especially near dealer pin magnets $385–$400.
Underperforms: Large gap beyond wings; earnings surprise triggers >EM move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for 17d is ±$29.93 (7.6%) — guidance-driven gaps could easily exceed sold-wing iron condor width if mis-sized.
!IV crush: 17d ATM IV 43.1% implies strong premium — long Vega trades benefit from a realized move but will suffer if IV collapses without enough underlying movement.
!Liquidity: Very liquid at strikes near spot (395, 400 have large OI/flow); wide spreads appear further OTM (deep calls like 420–450 have thin two-way markets).
!Sizing: Because dealer GEX is large (+$296.8M), scale position sizes to avoid heavy gamma pin effects; prefer defined-risk structures or small sized Vega exposure on outright straddles.

What to Watch

?17d ATM IV (43.1%) trajectory into the print — whether it climbs further or starts to bleed.
?Unusual call flow at $400 and $395 (heavy net call premium) versus put picks at lower strikes.
?Max pain / dealer pin magnets around $385–$400 and any shift in MP trend.
?Volume and bid/ask behavior in 395/400/420 strikes (liquidity and fills).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.