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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $501.61EOD only
Max Pain
$495.00
Next expiry Sep 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.10
1.6% from close
Price Gap
-6.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
0.51
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 21, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short premium
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $353 support or above $394 resistance; gamma flip to negative.
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
MSFT IV (42.7%) > VIX (19.5): rich premium.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term call skew: 1d ATM 27%, call 39%, 3d call 60%.

📈Front-week call IV elevated to 59%

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+65.5M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $375 (6/24), $382 (6/26), $380 (6/29); call wall $450-$525.

Verdict: Multiple OI clusters pin spot; dealer long gamma supports stability.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$340.00 put wing and $400.00/$420.00 call wing
Sell 360/340 put wing and 400/420 call wing, 31 DTE. Max gain $8.24, max loss $11.76.
Credit: $6.75-$8.24
Max loss: $11.76
BE: 351.76 / 408.24
Mgmt: Close before earnings (07/29); manage at 50% max gain.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$340.00 put spread
Sell 360/340 put credit spread, 31 DTE. Max gain $4.76, max loss $15.24.
Credit: $3.89-$4.76
Max loss: $15.24
BE: $355.24
Mgmt: Close before earnings; stop-loss at $353.07.

Risk Alerts

!Near-term call IV spike suggests potential volatility expansion.
!Multiple OI concentrations within 2% of spot increase pin risk.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.