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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $464.72EOD only
Max Pain
$392.50
Next expiry Aug 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.12
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-72.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Credit put spreads near support
Invalidation: Spot below $370 or IV > 50%
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 45.6% vs VIX 18.44, high relative premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: 0DTE call IV 70% vs put 48%, steep skew; normal term structure from +1DTE

🔥0DTE call IV 70% indicates event premium; premium selling risky but high premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-41.5M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $450-$525; max pain $395 (0DTE)

Verdict: Elevated pin risk due to high OI at $395 (0DTE) and call wall

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $355.00/$330.00 put wing and $420.00/$465.00 call wing
Sell put and call spreads for theta decay.
Credit: $11.32-$13.83
Max loss: $31.17
BE: 341.17 / 433.83
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if wings breached.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE call skew (70%) and short dealer gamma ($-41.5M) raise event risk; spot below max pain $395
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.