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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $451.10EOD only
Max Pain
$390.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.93
2.4% from close
Price Gap
-61.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 30, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Bull Put Spread
Invalidation: Spot closes below $392 max pain
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Above VIX
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Elevated near-term skew; short-dated IVs above longer-term, especially call skew

🟢IV at 41.8% vs VIX 16.2% offers rich premium for theta sellers
⚠️0DTE call IV 45.7% shows extreme skew, caution for naked calls

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+155.6M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $392 (6/15), $398 (6/17), $410 (6/18); support at $392.5

Verdict: Pinning expected near $392-$410 range given bull flow and positive GEX

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $390.00/$380.00 put spread
Sell 390 put, buy 380 put for defined risk, capitalizing on bull flow and elevated IV
Credit: $3.24-$3.96
Max loss: $6.04
BE: $386.04
Mgmt: Monitor below 392.5; adjust if breached
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $380.00 put + sell $410.00 call
Sell 380 put and 410 call to collect premium, expecting pinning in 380-410 range
Credit: $17.28-$21.12
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 358.88 / 431.12
Mgmt: Set stop-loss; adjust wings if spot moves beyond range

Risk Alerts

!High call skew in short-dated expirations
!0DTE ATM IV spike to 6% may indicate liquidity gaps
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.