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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $498.00EOD only
Max Pain
$497.50
Next expiry Sep 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.56
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.51
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 22, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Call Spread
Invalidation: Breakout above $385.68 or breakdown below $345.23.
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Base 5 from regime; +2 GEX/flow strong alignment; +0.5 VIX at 19.

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 44.9% vs VIX 18.6, significantly elevated.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end steep (0DTE call 51.3%), decaying after 7DTE; ATM IV ~35%.

📈0DTE call IV 51.3% extreme skew, possible event/expiry effect.
🔄Negative dealer gamma -$25.2M amplifies trending moves.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-25.2M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $375 today; heavy call OI wall $450-$525; no put concentration below.

Verdict: Spot below max pain; call wall far above reduces upside pin risk.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $345.00/$340.00 put wing and $375.00/$380.00 call wing
Harvests elevated IV premium with a range-bound outlook.
Credit: $2.81-$3.44
Max loss: $1.56
BE: 341.56 / 378.44
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if price approaches wings.

Risk Alerts

!High 0DTE call skew suggests pinning or event risk at expiry.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.