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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $399.76EOD only
Max Pain
$397.50
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.05
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-2.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Theta Collection
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $388 or above $405, or IV expands further
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 40.9% vs VIX 16.4%, elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Short-term call IV spikes to 79% (6/18), skew steep

⚠️2d call IV 79%, high risk on short calls
📈GEX +$76.7M, dealers long gamma may cap moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+76.7M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins $400 (6/17), $408 (6/18), $390 (6/22). Call OI wall $450-$575. No put concentration.

Verdict: Pinning likely near $400-$408, but call skew suggests upside risk if spot rallies

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $375.00/$370.00 put wing and $400.00/$405.00 call wing
Sell put wing at $375/$370 and call wing at $400/$405 to collect premium with wide safety buffer.
Credit: $2.93-$3.58
Max loss: $1.42
BE: 371.42 / 403.58
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $388 or above $405, or if IV expands further. Take profit at 50% of max gain.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $375.00/$370.00 put spread
Sell $375/$370 put spread to collect premium with bullish bias and defined risk.
Credit: $1.57-$1.93
Max loss: $3.07
BE: $373.07
Mgmt: Set stop loss if spot closes below $376.98. Take profit at 50% of credit received.

Risk Alerts

!High call IV on 6/18 expiry (79%), extreme move probability
!Net dealer premium negative (-$105M), potential hedging imbalances
!Spot below max pain, QQQ -1.9% adds downside pressure
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.