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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $352.83EOD only
Max Pain
$377.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.83
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+24.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
High premium
P/C OI
0.42
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Premium collection with bullish bias
Invalidation: Break below $360 support or spike in VIX > 20
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
MSFT IV (avg 46.8) well above VIX (18.4), indicating elevated implied vol.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure shows slight contango: front-month ATM ~26%, next week 30-43%, declining after 2 weeks.

📈GEX +$122.6M and bullish flow suggest positive gamma pinning.
⚠️Call OI wall at $450-$525 may cap upside, but spot far below.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+122.6M)

OI concentrations: Call OI heavy at $450-$525; max pain pins at $360, $365, $370.

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: spot at $379 (above MP) but large call OI above could attract price toward $360-$370 on pullback.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $370.00/$360.00 put spread
Sell 370/360 put spread to collect elevated premium while targeting price above 360.
Credit: $3.58-$4.37
Max loss: $5.63
BE: $365.63
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or near 360 invalidation.
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-31 $360.00 cash-secured put
Sell 360 put to collect premium and potentially buy MSFT cheaper.
Credit: $12.28-$15.01
Max loss: $344.99
BE: $344.99
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches 360 or close early.
#3
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $360.00/$350.00 put wing and $390.00/$395.00 call wing
Sell 360/350 put and 390/395 call to profit from low volatility.
Credit: $5.72-$6.99
Max loss: $3.01
BE: 353.01 / 396.99
Mgmt: Adjust wings or close at 50% profit.

Risk Alerts

!Spot ~3.6% above max pain ($360); risk of reversion.
!Near-term IV elevated; watch for vol crush.
!IV expansion risk: further spike could hurt short premium positions.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.