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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $497.75EOD only
Max Pain
$450.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.51
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-47.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short Put Spread
Invalidation: Break below $362 support or above $397 resistance, or VIX > 20
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV elevated relative to VIX (2.8x)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping with slight dip at mid-term

📈IV 2.8x VIX offers fat premiums
⚠️Negative GEX -$18.7M amplifies moves
🔒Call wall $450-$525 caps upside

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-18.7M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins at $395, $388, $385; call wall $450-$525

Verdict: Tenuous pin risk near $395 and $388 as spot below; call wall overhead offers resistance but low put OI below current levels implies limited downside pin.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $365.00/$355.00 put spread
Sell elevated IV premium with defined risk below support.
Credit: $2.41-$2.94
Max loss: $7.06
BE: $362.06
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or at invalidation $361.87.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $370.00/$362.50 put wing and $392.50/$397.50 call wing
Non-directional premium collection with defined risk.
Credit: $2.16-$2.64
Max loss: $4.86
BE: 367.36 / 395.14
Mgmt: Exit before earnings or at 50% max profit.

Risk Alerts

!High IV relative to VIX signals elevated premium but negative GEX adds risk
!Max pain pins below current spot could exert pull higher
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.