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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $379.40EOD only

Max Pain

$387.50

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.81

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+8.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.42

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV ~46.75%, VIX 17.28, elevated relative to VIX

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep contango from 0DTE to 2DTE, then flat to slightly upward

⚠️0DTE call IV 93.77% vs put 37.52%, extreme call skew likely due to expiry dynamics

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-2.2M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $380 (0DTE), $382 (2DTE), $390 (4DTE). Call OI wall $450-$525

Verdict: Pin risk elevated near $380; longer-dated pins less sharp

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $345.00/$330.00 put spread

Sell $345/$330 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV, limited downside.

Credit: $3.76-$4.59

Max loss: $10.41

BE: $340.41

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if MSFT breaks below $346.64.

Put diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $355.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $345.00 put

Sell near-term put, buy later put to profit from time decay and volatility skew.

Debit: $4.59-$5.61

Max loss: $5.61

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short put if tested; manage pin risk near $380.

Call diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $385.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $380.00 call

Sell near-term call, buy later call to collect premium with upside hedge.

Debit: $14.20-$17.35

Max loss: $17.35

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if MSFT approaches $390; adjust strikes if necessary.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma ($-2.2M) amplifies spot moves

!Spot ~3.3% below max pain $380, potential mean reversion

!Confidence base 7.5 but spot below max pain

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.