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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $487.46EOD only
Max Pain
$450.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.03
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-37.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.51
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 5, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Call Credit Spread
Invalidation: Break above $390 resistance
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV ~46.75%, VIX 17.28, elevated relative to VIX
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep contango from 0DTE to 2DTE, then flat to slightly upward

⚠️0DTE call IV 93.77% vs put 37.52%, extreme call skew likely due to expiry dynamics

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-2.2M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $380 (0DTE), $382 (2DTE), $390 (4DTE). Call OI wall $450-$525

Verdict: Pin risk elevated near $380; longer-dated pins less sharp

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $345.00/$330.00 put spread
Sell $345/$330 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV, limited downside.
Credit: $3.76-$4.59
Max loss: $10.41
BE: $340.41
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if MSFT breaks below $346.64.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $355.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $345.00 put
Sell near-term put, buy later put to profit from time decay and volatility skew.
Debit: $4.59-$5.61
Max loss: $5.61
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short put if tested; manage pin risk near $380.
#3
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $385.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $380.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to collect premium with upside hedge.
Debit: $14.20-$17.35
Max loss: $17.35
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if MSFT approaches $390; adjust strikes if necessary.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma ($-2.2M) amplifies spot moves
!Spot ~3.3% below max pain $380, potential mean reversion
!Confidence base 7.5 but spot below max pain
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.