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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $403.41EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.86
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+11.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT earnings 2026-07-29, 49d out. 100% beat rate. Spot below MP, net premium negative.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP
Most important: Large put flow and 0DTE hedging dominate, caution ahead.
📉Net premium -$48.8M; put-heavy flow
📈100% beat rate; consistent execution
⚠️Spot 1.9% below MP; gamma trending

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (49 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$9.92 (2.5%)
  • 2026-06-15 (5d): ±$12.12 (3.1%)
  • 2026-06-17 (7d): ±$15.67 (3.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping, near-term IV elevated: 2d ±2.5%, 5d ±3.1%, 7d ±3.9%.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush 30-40% post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated, reflecting hedged sentiment.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves near implied; consistent beats drive small upside bias.

Directional bias: Upward bias due to 100% beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $387.43/$407.28; 1w $385.23/$409.48
2Max pain pins: $405 (2026-06-10); $415 (2026-06-12); $408 (2026-06-15)

Flow Highlights

MSFT 2026-11-20 $580 Call: 17.4k vol vs 142 OI

Speculative long-dated bullish bet.

0DTE puts and calls active at $400-$405

Hedging and gamma scalping near key levels.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $420.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $417.50 call
Debit: $2.07-$2.52
Max loss: $2.52
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot breaks $378.78.
Captures elevated near-term IV; limited risk.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call for IV and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $405.00/$407.50 call spread
Debit: $0.50-$0.61
Max loss: $0.61
Max gain: $1.89
BE: $405.61
Trigger: Exit below $378.78; take profit near max gain.
Leverages 100% beat rate with defined risk.
Outperforms: Bullish bet with capped upside and limited loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $375.00 put + sell $425.00 call
Credit: $11.56-$14.14
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $14.14
BE: 360.86 / 439.14
Trigger: Monitor gamma; close if spot nears strikes.
Benefits from high IV and theta, but risky.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put/call to collect premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long call
Buy 2026-06-12 $405.00 call
Debit: $1.96-$2.39
Max loss: $2.39
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $407.39
High beat rate supports bullish directional bet.
Outperforms: Capture upside from earnings beat with limited downside.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush risk for premium sellers
!Spot at support $378, breakdown risk if broken
!Earnings 49d away; theta manageable

What to Watch

?$400 put wall for support
?0DTE gamma flip risk
?Pre-earnings vol expansion
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.