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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $403.41EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.86
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+11.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT 50 days to earnings; IV elevated with steep term structure. Heavy call buying suggests bullish bias, but gamma pinning near $415 caps upside. 100% beat rate historically.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Gamma pinning at $415 and heavy call flow indicate bullish sentiment, but resistance at $415-$420 and high IV demand caution.
🐂Heavy call OI buildup at $410-$415; bullish flow dominant.
⚠️Gamma pinning at $415; spot may struggle above.
📉100% historical beat rate supports positive bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (50 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-10 (1d): ±$5.86 (1.5%)
  • 2026-06-12 (3d): ±$10.85 (2.7%)
  • 2026-06-15 (6d): ±$12.80 (3.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 1d IV ~25%, 3d IV ~34%, 6d IV ~31%.

Crush estimate: Expected 50-60% crush post-earnings.

Skew: Puts slightly elevated (IV ~27%) versus calls (~25%), but not extreme.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 100% (5/5 quarters), but typical absolute move not quantified.

Directional bias: Bullish bias due to consistent beats.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $397.55/$409.27; 1w $390.61/$416.21
2Max pain pins: $415 (2026-06-10); $422 (2026-06-12); $420 (2026-06-15)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume on 2026-06-10 $410, $405, $407.5, $415 strikes; OI spikes.

Aggressive call buying suggests bullish positioning near-term.

Put volume elevated at $397.5 and $400 strikes.

Hedging or bearish bets at downside levels.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$385.00 put wing and $420.00/$427.50 call wing
Credit: $5.18-$6.33
Max loss: $8.67
Max gain: $6.33
BE: 393.67 / 426.33
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust if breaks $410-$420.
Neutral strategy capitalizing on gamma pinning at $415 and IV crush; defined risk, high probability of profit given resistance cap and historical beat consistency.
Outperforms: Sell put/call wings around pin level; profit from time decay and vol contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $410.00/$420.00 call spread
Debit: $3.67-$4.48
Max loss: $4.48
Max gain: $5.52
BE: $414.48
Trigger: Sell if stock stays below $410 by earnings; hold through if above.
Bullish directional play using August expiry to bypass near-term pin; captures potential breakout post-earnings with defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $410/$420 call spread; benefits from upside move while limiting loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 put + buy $420.00 call
Debit: $38.07-$46.53
Max loss: $46.53
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 353.47 / 466.53
Trigger: Set stop-loss on premium decay; exit at earnings close to avoid crush.
High convexity for large moves; suitable given 100% beat rate but expensive with elevated IV and risk of IV crush.
Outperforms: Buy out-of-the-money put and call; profits from significant volatility.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Time decay risk: 50 days to earnings; theta will erode long premium.
!IV crush risk: post-earnings IV collapse likely.
!Resistance at $415-$420 may cap upside near-term.
!Macro headwinds: SPY and QQQ down, VIX ~20.

What to Watch

?Spot level relative to $415 max pain; sustained above $410 bullish.
?Volume confirmation of unusual call flow; OI growth at $410-$415.
?Earnings price move expectation: ±1.5% 1d, ±2.7% 3d.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.