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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $416.67EOD only
Max Pain
$432.50
Next expiry Jun 8, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.47
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+15.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT next earnings on 2026-07-29, 51 days out. Historical beat rate 100%, strong bullish flow with call OI wall at $450-$575. Current spot below max pain and EM guardrails. Expect potential upward drift with earnings tailwind.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Net premium inflow $103.5M, call-heavy flow, unusual print activity near current levels.
📈Call OI wall at $450-$575 indicates institutional bullish sentiment intra-quarter.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (51 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-10 (2d): ±$8.38 (2.0%)
  • 2026-06-12 (4d): ±$12.18 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-15 (7d): ±$14.00 (3.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to event, back-end contango

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings (~2-3 vols)

Skew: Put/call ratio 0.46, call dominance

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Consistent beats, avg move +3-5%

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $403.36/$420.11; 1w $397.74/$425.74
2Max pain pins: $425 (2026-06-08); $428 (2026-06-10); $428 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Jul $485 and $585 calls bought

Bullish bets on earnings and beyond

Strategies

Bullish Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $435.00 call
Debit: $4.93-$6.02
Max loss: $6.02
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short strike if spot nears; close before earnings.
Outperforms iron condor given strong bullish bias, 100% beat rate, and net premium inflow.
Outperforms: Long-dated call vs short front-month call for bullish upside capture.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Earnings Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$395.00 put wing and $430.00/$435.00 call wing
Credit: $2.86-$3.49
Max loss: $1.51
Max gain: $3.49
BE: 396.51 / 433.49
Trigger: Adjust wings if breakout; exit pre-earnings.
Less favored due to bullish momentum but suits neutral expectation.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings for contained move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings gap risk if miss despite history
!Volatility crush post-event if long premium
!Delta risk from large call OI wall if spot pulls back

What to Watch

?Price action around $425 max pain and $430 resistance
?Sustained bullish flow into Jul
?Vix and QQQ correlation
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.