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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $428.05EOD only
Max Pain
$430.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.93
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.95
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSFT pre-earnings snapshot 54 days out; current selloff with strong historical beat rate.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 22
Most important: 100% beat rate but macro headwinds; near-term flow shows active hedging at $415-$425.
📊Strong beat rate: MSFT consistently beats EPS
🛡️Heavy put activity at $415 suggests floor
⚠️QQQ -4.8% today; tech weakness

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (54 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-08 (3d): ±$7.47 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-10 (5d): ±$12.43 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$14.97 (3.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-month IV ~20-25%; expected term structure upward sloping toward earnings.

Crush estimate: Significant crush expected post-earnings (7/29), but far out.

Skew: Put skew elevated at front due to hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Consistent beats imply avg move > implied.

Directional bias: Bullish based on strong beat rate and consistent outperformance.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $409.20/$424.15; 1w $404.25/$429.10
2Max pain pins: $428 (2026-06-05); $432 (2026-06-08); $430 (2026-06-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put/call activity at 0DTE and next week; large $415 put volume.

Short-term hedging and pinning around $415-$420.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $430.00/$440.00 call wing
Credit: $5.24-$6.41
Max loss: $3.59
Max gain: $6.41
BE: 403.59 / 436.41
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks beyond wings; adjust if vol spikes.
Best fits the expected tight range $415-$425 with defined risk and high probability of profit.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings around the hedging zone, collecting premium with manageable risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00 put + sell $430.00 call
Credit: $7.72-$9.43
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.43
BE: 390.57 / 439.43
Trigger: Roll up put or down call if challenged; set stop-loss.
Higher premium than IC but unlimited risk; suitable for confident range-bound view.
Outperforms: Sell out-of-the-money put and call to collect premium, betting on limited move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $430.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call
Debit: $6.50-$7.95
Max loss: $7.95
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if front-month approaches ATM; exit if spot breaks invalidation level.
Bullish bias with vol decay benefit; front-month IV higher than back-month.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later-term call to profit from vol decline and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-06-12 $417.50 put + buy $417.50 call
Debit: $13.48-$16.47
Max loss: $16.47
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 401.03 / 433.97
100% beat rate and current selloff imply larger move; straddle profits from volatility.
Outperforms: Buy straddle pre-earnings to capture expected move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Macro tech selloff may pressure MSFT before earnings.
!Spot below max pain at $428 suggests near-term bearish tilt.

What to Watch

?$415 support and $427.5 resistance.
?Earnings expected move not yet priced.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.