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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $440.83EOD only

Max Pain

$442.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.73

3.6% from close

Price Gap

+1.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.37

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

TSM AI Consensus Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction

7.5

out of 10

7.5 not 8 because the earnings beat history introduces a binary risk that could invalidate the bearish thesis despite strong alignment among flow, directional, and theta signals.

Where Perspectives Agree

All personas converge on bearish bias: negative GEX, heavy put flow, spot below max pain ($442), and IV backwardation point to downside pressure toward $350-$420 support.

Where They Diverge

Earnings persona notes 100% historical beat rate, which could trigger a bullish reversal contradicting the bearish flow/directional thesis; theta's iron condor assumes range-bound while flow/directional expect trending downside.

Top Trade

via directional

Buy 2026-07-17 $430/$400 bear put spread for net debit $12.00

Key Risk

Break above $442 (max pain) flips dealer gamma from short to long, triggering a short squeeze that invalidates the bearish thesis and pushes spot toward $470 resistance.

How to Use These Reports

This ai consensus reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.