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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $462.12EOD only

Max Pain

$430.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.32

2.9% from close

Price Gap

-32.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.38

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

TSM AI Consensus Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction

7.0

out of 10

7 not 8 because the mixed flow signal and spot 6.3% above max pain create risk of pullback to $440 pin, reducing conviction from a pure bullish score. Higher IV supports theta strategies but also implies event uncertainty.

Where Perspectives Agree

Bullish pin near $440 with dealer gamma support, elevated IV favoring premium selling, and institutional call sweeps at $502.5/$507.5 reinforcing upside bias despite mixed put activity.

Where They Diverge

Flow shows both aggressive call sweeps ($502.5/$507.5) and high put volume ratio (1.31) with deep OTM put sweeps at $432.5/$460, indicating hedging or bearish sentiment that could cap upside if earnings disappoint.

Top Trade

via theta

Sell 2026-07-24 $450/$445 put credit spread for $0.80 credit — defined risk, positive theta, profits from pinning above $450, and expires before earnings.

Key Risk

Break below $430 (put floor) invalidates bullish pin; dealer gamma flips long, accelerating downside to $410 (next support) and triggering stop-loss cascade from put credit spread positions.

How to Use These Reports

This ai consensus reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.