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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.23
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA 61 days from earnings; high VIX but low near-dated IV. Flow shows heavy put buying at 425-427.5, but calls dominate volume. Historical beat rate 40%.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Near-dated put buying suggests downside hedging, but call OI wall at 450-500 implies resistance.
⚠️Heavy put activity at 425-427.5 suggests downside protection or bearish sentiment for near term.
📊Net premium positive ($446M) despite bearish put flow; calls dominate volume ratio (0.5).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,945 (29.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (61 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-26 (4d): ±$9.85 (2.3%)
  • 2026-05-27 (5d): ±$13.30 (3.1%)
  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$18.15 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango; front-week IV 4-13%, next-week 25-40%.

Crush estimate: N/A - earnings far out, no immediate crush.

Skew: Put skew steep on near-dated; high put OI at 425.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available.

Directional bias: Slightly bearish (40% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $412.71/$439.31
3Max pain pins: $412 (2026-05-22); $415 (2026-05-26); $420 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Massive put volume on 2026-05-22 427.5 and 425 strikes, each exceeding 100k contracts.

Hedging or bearish bets ahead of weekly expiry; pinning risk near 430.

Call volume also elevated at 427.5 and 432.5 (May 22).

Balanced flow suggests gamma pinning around 430.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $410.00/$405.00 put wing and $440.00/$445.00 call wing
Credit: $3.15-$3.85
Max loss: $1.15
Max gain: $3.85
BE: 406.15 / 443.85
Trigger: Close at 50% profit; adjust if stock approaches wings.
Defined risk exploiting max pain and call wall; high contango premium.
Outperforms: Sell 410p/405p and 440c/445c, profit if TSLA stays 410-440.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $410.00 put + sell $440.00 call
Credit: $24.86-$30.39
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.39
BE: 379.61 / 470.39
Trigger: Set stop-loss on 405 or 445 break; roll if IV spikes.
Higher premium but unlimited risk; captures term structure premium.
Outperforms: Sell 410 put and 440 call, betting on range-bound move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip zone at 430 based on put OI concentration.
!Resistance at 440-450 from call OI walls.
!Max pain at 412-415 for near-dated expiries.

What to Watch

?Max pain levels: $412 (May 22), $415 (May 26), $420 (May 27).
?EM guardrails: 1w $412.71/$439.31.
?Put volume at $425 and $427.5 for continued hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.