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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $404.11EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.10
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+13.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias on high volatility and positive dealer gamma, targeting recovery toward max pain $418. Near-term range expands with event risk.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive pin -0.5 spot below MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 8.0
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, high IV, recovery from below MP
Conflicts: Spot below key levels, put OI concentration, gamma flip risk at $300
🚀GEX +$54M with bullish flow suggests upside bias
⚠️Spot 3.2% below max pain $418; pinning pressure active
🐻Put OI 25.8% below spot at $300 signals downside hedge

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV at 74th percentile (52w HV ~45%), elevated due to event uncertainty and options demand
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX of +$54M, gamma flip far at ~$300, no near-term flip risk
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow with 1.4M calls vs 0.8M puts in premium, call OI building
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 383.89 below max pain $418 (May 20); net selling pressure expected but dealer hedging supportive
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and pinning dynamics focus on near-term expiry; thesis holds until May 20 expiry

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$396.01$412.21
Recovery toward max pain $418
Next 1 week
$386.61$421.61
Test resistance 417-422
Next 2 weeks
$374.53$433.68
Volatility expansion but upside bias; wide range

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $418 (2026-05-20); $415 (2026-05-22); $422 (2026-05-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $396.01/$412.21; 1w $386.61/$421.61
Support: $374.53
Resistance: $417.50 · $433.68
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,250 (25.8% below spot)
Structural: Support: 374.53; Resistance: 417.5, 433.68; Max pain pins: $418 (May 20), $415 (May 22), $422 (May 26)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.0M

DEX: +124.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,250 (25.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: +$54.0M long gamma, flip at ~$300, strongly bullish

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX 18, reflecting event premium; expect contraction post-expiry

Term structure: Backwardated near expiry, elevated front-month IV due to event

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads to capture upside with vol contraction

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$455M (call-heavy); P/C vol ratio 0.62 confirms bullish flow.

Directional prints: 34.8 call 402.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 328.9 massive; likely bought sweep. Preferred read: bullish bet targeting move above 402.5. 35.4 call 397.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 185.6; bought call volume. Preferred read: bullish continuation. 34.6 call 405 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 121.9; heavy call buying. Preferred read: bullish upside speculation.

Unusual: 212.5 call 900 OTM 2026-05-22 — Extreme OTM call with 212.5% IV; 91k vol vs 1.9k OI. Likely lottery-style buying. Preferred read: outlier sentiment, low probability. 40.7 put 382.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — High vol/OI 41.2 for put; may be hedging. Two-sided: could be sold or bought. Preferred read: caution, neutral to bearish. 36.4 call 395 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 89.6 for ITM call; aggressive buying. Preferred read: bullish directional play.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to reach $418 and sells off toward support 374.53
!Gamma flip if spot drops to $300, causing dealer hedging selloff
!Event-driven volatility collapse after expiry

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$420.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk upside; call-heavy flow supports recovery.
Max loss if spot below long strike at expiry.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $385.00/$380.00 put spread
Why now: Collect credit with defined risk below support.
Spot drops below 385; spread goes ITM.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $380.00 put
Why now: Capitalize on bullish flow; offset put premium.
Downside exposure if spot drops below short put.
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish regime; sell put at 380 collects premium.
Spot falls significantly; capital at risk if assigned.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread 400/420
Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$420.00 call spread
Buy 400 call, sell 420 call for net debit; max gain above 420.
Why this play: Aligned with bullish flow and $418 target; defined risk.
Debit: $8.08-$9.87
Max loss: $9.87
BE: $409.87
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 374.5.
Traders expecting recovery to $418 with limited risk.
#2
Bullish risk reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $380.00 put
Buy 420 call, sell 380 put for net credit; profits above 420.
Why this play: Unlimited upside; call-heavy flow supports.
Debit: $5.92-$7.23
Max loss: $380.00
BE: $380.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; roll if spot approaches 380.
Traders wanting leveraged upside with put premium offset.
#3
Put credit spread 385/380
Sell 2026-07-17 $385.00/$380.00 put spread
Sell 385 put, buy 380 put; max profit if TSLA > 385.
Why this play: Collects credit with defined risk below support.
Credit: $1.73-$2.12
Max loss: $2.88
BE: $382.88
Mgmt: Close if spot drops near 374.5.
Conservative traders seeking premium income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TSLA holds above 374.53 and reaches 390 → THEN enter bull call spread 400/420 (rank1) for debit 8.08-9.87
IFIF TSLA price reaches 385 → THEN enter put credit spread 385/380 (rank3) for credit 1.73-2.12
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF TSLA price reaches 380 → THEN roll risk_reversal put up or close for loss
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TSLA breaks below 374.53 → THEN close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias toward $418 max pain; support 374.53. Prefer defined-risk: 400/420 call spread (rank1). Exit below 374.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.