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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $445.27EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.50
3.5% from close
Price Gap
-45.27
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
86
High premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA shows bullish regime with strong dealer gamma support, but spot is 9.5% above max pain $405, suggesting potential mean reversion. Bias cautiously bullish near-term with risk of pullback to pin.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX moderate
Supports: Bullish flow, high GEX, positive gamma pinning
Conflicts: Spot 9.5% above max pain, high vol, risk of reversion
⚡Bullish flow: heavy call premium drives dealer hedging.
📌Gamma pin at $405 may act as magnet for price.
⚠️Spot far from pin: risk of reversion to $405.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated, VIX at 17.26, TSLA implied vol above typical range indicating heightened expected movement.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma pinning near $430 max pain; $315.7M GEX supports price containment.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish premium flow consistent with call buying; dealer long gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$439, 9.5% above max pain $405, indicating bullish sentiment but stretched.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry on 2026-05-15 with max pain pin at $405, but spot far above; gamma pinning may pull price lower.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$432.57$454.02
Range $432.57-$454.02; supported by GEX but risk of pinning lower.
Next 1 week
$422.37$464.22
Wider range $422.37-$464.22; gamma support may erode.
Next 2 weeks
$410.55$476.05
Range $410.55-$476.05; key structural support at $405.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-15); $425 (2026-05-18); $430 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $432.57/$454.02; 1w $422.37/$464.22
Support: $410.55 · $405.00
Resistance: $450.00 · $475.00 · $476.05
Structural: Max pain: $405 (2026-05-15), $425 (2026-05-18), $430 (2026-05-20). Support: $410.55, $405. Resistance: $450, $475, $476.05. EM guardrails: 2d $432.57/$454.02; 1w $422.37/$464.22.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+315.7M

DEX: +147.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$315.7M, DEX +147.5M shares. Strong positive gamma pinning near $430 max pain. No gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV elevated relative to VIX 17.26, consistent with high vol regime and event-driven uncertainty.

Term structure: Short-dated IV elevated due to upcoming expiry; back-month relatively lower but still above historical vol.

Skew: Call skew elevated; no clear vol arbitrage opportunity evident given tight spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $446.6M positive, P/C vol 0.48 calls dominant, indicating strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 46.5 call 445 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 18.2x, IV 46.5%. Bullish call volume. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 41.2 put 442.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 40.1x, unusually high. Likely sold for premium (bullish) given net flow. 45.2 put 445 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 32x. Unusual put volume; likely hedging or income selling. 51.2 put 465 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 25.1x. ITM put volume high; could be protective buying or closing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot deviation from max pain pin $405 causing dealer hedging unwind
!Earnings or macro event spike
!Gamma flip if price breaks below $410 support
!IV crush post-expiry

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $455.00/$510.00 call spread
Why now: Bull call spread captures upside with defined risk; 64 DTE covers near-term move without overpaying.
Pullback below max pain 405 would hurt; no earnings gap risk as trade closed before earnings.
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-29 $470.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $455.00 call
Why now: Sell 15 DTE call to capture rich IV, buy 64 DTE call for directional exposure at lower net cost.
Sharp selloff loses on both legs; short leg expires before earnings, minimizing gap risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $455.00/$510.00 call spread
Buy $455/$510 call spread to profit from upside move with limited loss
Why this play: Defined risk, captures upside with 64 DTE, aligns with bullish bias
Debit: $14.58-$17.82
Max loss: $17.82
BE: $472.82
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if TSLA breaks below 410.55
Traders seeking capped risk and direct directional exposure
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $470.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $455.00 call
Sell 15 DTE $470 call, buy 64 DTE $455 call for net credit and directional theta
Why this play: Exploits rich IV in short-dated calls while maintaining long-dated upside
Debit: $21.15-$25.85
Max loss: $25.85
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short call if tested; exit if TSLA breaks below 410.55
Traders comfortable with calendar spreads and IV harvesting

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFTSLA holds above 410.55 and closes above 454.02 (2d upper guardrail) → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-17 $455/$510 call spread at mid-market (~16.20)
IFTSLA holds above 410.55 and consolidates between 432.57 and 454.02 → Enter call diagonal: sell 2026-05-29 $470 call, buy 2026-07-17 $455 call for net credit (~23.50)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJTSLA rises to 470 (short call strike) in diagonal → Roll short call to next weekly $480 or higher to avoid assignment
Exit Triggers
EXITTSLA breaks and closes below 410.55 → Close all positions: stop out bull call spread and unwind diagonal

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias near-term with support at 410.55 and resistance at 450-475. Spot 9.5% above max pain ($405) suggests pullback risk. Enter defined-risk plays above 410.55 and adjust/exit on invalidation or target. Monitor for earnings-driven volatility.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.