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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $352.42EOD only

Max Pain

$350.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.72

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-2.42

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a pin magnet at $350 and upside leash to the 1-week EM guardrail $367.15; Confidence: 6.5/10 (base). Primary supports: heavy positive GEX concentration +$84.6M centered at $352.50 and max pain at $350; IV elevated (Avg IV 56.4%) but near-term ATM IV choppier (2–39% term kink) supports short-premium tactics. Conflicts: net premium negative $-26.2M and mixed flow prints (large call buys at $340/$350 vs big put premium at $360/$500) leave directional conviction muted.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 (given): +GEX pinning centered $352.50; -mixed flow/net premium negative; +spot ~0% from MP; +VIX 19 supports premium selling but IV structure shows short-term spikes.

Supports: GEX pinning at $352.50 (+$45.1M) and concentrated put OI at $350/$347.5 create dealer buying between $347.50–$352.50; near-term EM floors $343.70 and weekly MP $350 support range.
Conflicts: Net premium -$26.2M (institutional put-heavy on aggregate), top premium at $360 shows heavy put buying which would work against pure short-call bias; large structural call OI out at $400-$500 caps upside.

📌GEX pin strong at $352.50 (+$45.1M) — dealers will hedge toward that level

⚖️Avg IV 56.4% high but near-term ATM IV collapsed to 2.3% (0d) then re-expands to 34–39% on 2–4d — trade calendars selectively

🧲Max pain $350 across multiple near expiries — favorable for short premium around 345–355

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime; Avg IV 56.4% with short-dated ATM IV spikes (2.3% 0d then 34–39% at 2–4d) — implies event/front-loaded θ and exploitable term skew.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX +$84.6M concentrated at $352.50/$350/$347.50; dealers will buy into dips and sell rallies around the pin, supporting mean reversion.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: heavy call premium at $340/$350 (net bullish flow) vs sizable put premium at $360 and large institutional sells at $500; P/C vol 0.79 and P/C OI 0.69 show call dominance but net premium negative $-26.2M points to some put-heavy institutional hedges.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $352.42 is essentially at MP $350 (0.7% distance) — near-term magnet persists across several expiries.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP persist across multiple near expiries (13–24 Apr) and GEX positive remains concentrated at near-term strikes; favors 30–45 DTE core with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$343.70$361.15

Pin at $352.50 keeps price inside $343.70–$361.15; sustained move above $361.15 requires gamma unraveling or large buys.

Next 1 week

$337.70$367.15

Weekly MP $350 and positive GEX will pin unless net premium flow or macro catalyst forces break >1.5% moves above $367.15.

Next 2 weeks

$321.42$383.42

MP trend is rising (350→390 across expiries); break above $383.42 needs sustained call buying and rotation of dealer hedges.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $350 (2026-04-13); $350 (2026-04-15); $358 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $343.70/$361.15; 1w $337.70/$367.15

Support: $350.00 · $347.50 · $343.70

Resistance: $360.00 · $367.15 · $375.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,179 (14.9% below spot)

Structural: Structural call wall $400–$500 caps long-term upside; put floor $200–$300 is long-tail support for large directional hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+84.6M

DEX: +121.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,179 (14.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large NTM positive gamma concentrated at $352.50 (+$45.1M), $350 (+$15.0M) and $347.50 (+$5.5M) — dealers buy on dips toward those strikes; if spot falls ~-2% (~$345) dealers will be net long delta and buy more stock (damping declines); if spot rises +2% (~$360) dealers will sell stock to hedge, creating resistance near $360.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 56.4% vs VIX 19.12 — TSLA vol richly priced versus equity market, but short-term IV surface shows collapse to 2.3% (0d) then re-expansion (34–39% 2–4d) — front-loaded event skew.

Term structure: Front-loaded: extremely low 0d IV then 2–7d ATM IV 34–39% with higher mid-term IV (~46–52% at 11–25d) — favorable for calendars/diagonals selling higher-IV legs and buying lower-IV legs.

Skew: Notable mispricing: sell the higher-IV 5/15 (45.8%) and buy 4/20 (35.7%) to capture ~10 vol-pt differential — implies reverse calendar to collect net credit.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$26.2M (institutional put-heavy on aggregate), P/C vol 0.79 indicates more call volume but large dollar flows concentrated at specific strikes.

Directional prints: 33.9 put 357.5 ITM 2026-04-15 — Huge ITM put print TSLA260415P00357500 Vol 25,553 vs OI 193 — likely trade layering short-term protection (buy puts) or seller closing; consistent with mixed flow but greater probability of bought protection given net premium negative. 6.6 put 350 OTM 2026-04-13 — Massive 4/13 put prints TSLA260413P00350000 Vol 203,013 vs OI 1,557 with tiny IV — likely trade execution/assignment flows or aggressive closing; ambiguous interpretation but aligns with dealer pin hedging activity.

Unusual: 2.1 call 352.5 OTM 2026-04-13 — TSLA260413C00352500 very high vol vs OI — likely high-frequency/closing activity around expiry; signals large gamma churn at the pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$300 is distant but a large directional gap lower would remove dealer hedging support and accelerate declines

!Expiry cluster 4/13–4/20 releases pin; sharp unwind could spike IV and break short-premium trades

!Net premium negative and heavy put premium at $360/$500 create tail risk to the upside if institutional buys continue

!Macro risk: market rally (QQQ +1%) could push TSLA above resistance $360–$367 and force dealer delta selling

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy TSLA stock at market $352.42	Large capital outlay and gap risk; dealers will hedge against you near pin
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short stock while GEX +$84.6M pins price	Dealer long-gamma buys into dips, pin friction makes trend shorts expensive
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 365.0C	Caps upside at 365; vega exposure if IV rises ahead of earnings
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P or sell 2026-05-15 340.0P cash-secured	Assignment into stock near pin; sudden gap down ramps losses
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 380.0C for directional upside exposure	High premium (IV) and time decay; better as tail hedge
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 320.0P / sell 2026-05-15 300.0P bear put spread	Costs vs gamma pin; payoff only on material down move
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 345.0/335.0P × 355.0/365.0C (defined-risk short premium around pin)	Vega/IV spike around expiry and directional break beyond wings
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar - sell longer, buy near)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 352.5C / Buy 2026-04-20 352.5C (reverse calendar)	Requires pin/stable spot; selling higher-IV longer-dated leg exposes you to longer-term direction but collects term premium
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 340.0C and sell 2026-04-20 355.0C (diagonal)	Directional to upside; requires IV curve to remain steep and spot to not drop below 340
Put credit spread (defined risk short premium)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P / buy 335.0P put spread	Pin invalidation below 335 will hurt rapidly

Top Plays

Sell 4/20 345/335 put spread

Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P / Buy 2026-04-20 335.0P

Short premium play inside pin support ($347.50–$352.50) capturing elevated near-term IV and positive GEX; tight defined risk if pin holds.

Credit: $0.60-$1.10

Max loss: $9.40

BE: $344.40

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if price < $342 for 30+ min or IV spikes >+8 vol pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk income with short horizon

Reverse calendar: sell 5/15 352.5C buy 4/20 352.5C

Sell 2026-05-15 352.5C / Buy 2026-04-20 352.5C (reverse calendar)

Follows rule to sell the higher-IV leg (5/15 IV ~45.8%) and buy the lower-IV near-term (4/20 IV ~35%); collects term premium and profits if pin holds and short-dated decays slower than long-dated exposure.

Credit: $0.20-$0.80

Max loss: Limited to assignment/early-exercise and direction risk; monitor margin

BE: Requires short-dated decay to outpace longer leg; manage to roll if spot moves >$6 from strike

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of collected credit; if spot trends >$360, buy back short 5/15 and reestablish as normal calendar.

Vol-arb traders who accept selling longer-term vega while capturing front-loaded theta

Iron condor 4/20 around the pin

Sell 2026-04-20 335.0/345.0P × 355.0/365.0C (put wing lower)

Wider wing iron condor capitalizes on GEX pin at $352.5 and 1-week EM bounds; collects premium while staying inside 1-week EM $337.70–$367.15.

Credit: $0.90-$1.75

Max loss: $8.10

BE: Lower BE ~334.10 / Upper BE ~366.90

Mgmt: Take 50% profits if premium decays to 40% of entry; tighten wings or buy protection if spot moves outside $342–$362.

Defined-risk premium sellers with capacity for multi-leg management

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $350.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 345/335 put spread

IFIf spot remains between $347.50–$355.00 into 11:30 ET → Initiate iron condor 4/20 335/345P × 355/365C

IFIf IV differential (IV 5/15 – IV 4/20) ≥10 vol pts at ATM 352.5 → Enter reverse calendar: sell 5/15 352.5C / buy 4/20 352.5C

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $360.00 and short premium position losing >30% of max margin → Roll short calls up one strike and widen put side or close condor

ADJIf spot < $342.00 (break below 2d lower EM $343.70) → Buy protective 4/20 335.0P or close short put spreads immediately

Exit Triggers

EXITIf IV spikes +8 vol pts vs entry on the short leg → Close short premium positions (put spread/condor/reverse calendar short leg)

EXITIf short premium trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and remove directional exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-premium around the $350–$352.5 pin using defined-risk put spreads and a reverse calendar that sells the higher-IV longer leg; invalidation below $342 (sustained) or above $367.15 triggers directional rotations. Top plays: 4/20 345/335 put spread (defined-risk short), reverse calendar sell 5/15 buy 4/20 ATM (vol-term arbitrage), and 4/20 iron condor around pin — choose by time-horizon and capital profile.

Read the Directional analysis for TSLA for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.