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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $435.79EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.82
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a pin magnet at $350 and upside leash to the 1-week EM guardrail $367.15; Confidence: 6.5/10 (base). Primary supports: heavy positive GEX concentration +$84.6M centered at $352.50 and max pain at $350; IV elevated (Avg IV 56.4%) but near-term ATM IV choppier (2–39% term kink) supports short-premium tactics. Conflicts: net premium negative $-26.2M and mixed flow prints (large call buys at $340/$350 vs big put premium at $360/$500) leave directional conviction muted.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 6.5 (given): +GEX pinning centered $352.50; -mixed flow/net premium negative; +spot ~0% from MP; +VIX 19 supports premium selling but IV structure shows short-term spikes.
Supports: GEX pinning at $352.50 (+$45.1M) and concentrated put OI at $350/$347.5 create dealer buying between $347.50–$352.50; near-term EM floors $343.70 and weekly MP $350 support range.
Conflicts: Net premium -$26.2M (institutional put-heavy on aggregate), top premium at $360 shows heavy put buying which would work against pure short-call bias; large structural call OI out at $400-$500 caps upside.
📌GEX pin strong at $352.50 (+$45.1M) — dealers will hedge toward that level
⚖️Avg IV 56.4% high but near-term ATM IV collapsed to 2.3% (0d) then re-expands to 34–39% on 2–4d — trade calendars selectively
🧲Max pain $350 across multiple near expiries — favorable for short premium around 345–355

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime; Avg IV 56.4% with short-dated ATM IV spikes (2.3% 0d then 34–39% at 2–4d) — implies event/front-loaded θ and exploitable term skew.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning — large positive GEX +$84.6M concentrated at $352.50/$350/$347.50; dealers will buy into dips and sell rallies around the pin, supporting mean reversion.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: heavy call premium at $340/$350 (net bullish flow) vs sizable put premium at $360 and large institutional sells at $500; P/C vol 0.79 and P/C OI 0.69 show call dominance but net premium negative $-26.2M points to some put-heavy institutional hedges.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $352.42 is essentially at MP $350 (0.7% distance) — near-term magnet persists across several expiries.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP persist across multiple near expiries (13–24 Apr) and GEX positive remains concentrated at near-term strikes; favors 30–45 DTE core with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$343.70$361.15
Pin at $352.50 keeps price inside $343.70–$361.15; sustained move above $361.15 requires gamma unraveling or large buys.
Next 1 week
$337.70$367.15
Weekly MP $350 and positive GEX will pin unless net premium flow or macro catalyst forces break >1.5% moves above $367.15.
Next 2 weeks
$321.42$383.42
MP trend is rising (350→390 across expiries); break above $383.42 needs sustained call buying and rotation of dealer hedges.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $350 (2026-04-13); $350 (2026-04-15); $358 (2026-04-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $343.70/$361.15; 1w $337.70/$367.15
Support: $350.00 · $347.50 · $343.70
Resistance: $360.00 · $367.15 · $375.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,179 (14.9% below spot)
Structural: Structural call wall $400–$500 caps long-term upside; put floor $200–$300 is long-tail support for large directional hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+84.6M

DEX: +121.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,179 (14.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large NTM positive gamma concentrated at $352.50 (+$45.1M), $350 (+$15.0M) and $347.50 (+$5.5M) — dealers buy on dips toward those strikes; if spot falls ~-2% (~$345) dealers will be net long delta and buy more stock (damping declines); if spot rises +2% (~$360) dealers will sell stock to hedge, creating resistance near $360.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 56.4% vs VIX 19.12 — TSLA vol richly priced versus equity market, but short-term IV surface shows collapse to 2.3% (0d) then re-expansion (34–39% 2–4d) — front-loaded event skew.

Term structure: Front-loaded: extremely low 0d IV then 2–7d ATM IV 34–39% with higher mid-term IV (~46–52% at 11–25d) — favorable for calendars/diagonals selling higher-IV legs and buying lower-IV legs.

Skew: Notable mispricing: sell the higher-IV 5/15 (45.8%) and buy 4/20 (35.7%) to capture ~10 vol-pt differential — implies reverse calendar to collect net credit.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$26.2M (institutional put-heavy on aggregate), P/C vol 0.79 indicates more call volume but large dollar flows concentrated at specific strikes.

Directional prints: 33.9 put 357.5 ITM 2026-04-15 — Huge ITM put print TSLA260415P00357500 Vol 25,553 vs OI 193 — likely trade layering short-term protection (buy puts) or seller closing; consistent with mixed flow but greater probability of bought protection given net premium negative. 6.6 put 350 OTM 2026-04-13 — Massive 4/13 put prints TSLA260413P00350000 Vol 203,013 vs OI 1,557 with tiny IV — likely trade execution/assignment flows or aggressive closing; ambiguous interpretation but aligns with dealer pin hedging activity.

Unusual: 2.1 call 352.5 OTM 2026-04-13 — TSLA260413C00352500 very high vol vs OI — likely high-frequency/closing activity around expiry; signals large gamma churn at the pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$300 is distant but a large directional gap lower would remove dealer hedging support and accelerate declines
!Expiry cluster 4/13–4/20 releases pin; sharp unwind could spike IV and break short-premium trades
!Net premium negative and heavy put premium at $360/$500 create tail risk to the upside if institutional buys continue
!Macro risk: market rally (QQQ +1%) could push TSLA above resistance $360–$367 and force dealer delta selling

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy TSLA stock at market $352.42
Large capital outlay and gap risk; dealers will hedge against you near pin
Short stockWeak
Avoid initiating naked short stock while GEX +$84.6M pins price
Dealer long-gamma buys into dips, pin friction makes trend shorts expensive
Covered callModerate
Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 365.0C
Caps upside at 365; vega exposure if IV rises ahead of earnings
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P or sell 2026-05-15 340.0P cash-secured
Assignment into stock near pin; sudden gap down ramps losses
Long callsModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-15 380.0C for directional upside exposure
High premium (IV) and time decay; better as tail hedge
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 320.0P / sell 2026-05-15 300.0P bear put spread
Costs vs gamma pin; payoff only on material down move
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-20 345.0/335.0P × 355.0/365.0C (defined-risk short premium around pin)
Vega/IV spike around expiry and directional break beyond wings
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar - sell longer, buy near)Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 352.5C / Buy 2026-04-20 352.5C (reverse calendar)
Requires pin/stable spot; selling higher-IV longer-dated leg exposes you to longer-term direction but collects term premium
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 340.0C and sell 2026-04-20 355.0C (diagonal)
Directional to upside; requires IV curve to remain steep and spot to not drop below 340
Put credit spread (defined risk short premium)Moderate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P / buy 335.0P put spread
Pin invalidation below 335 will hurt rapidly

Top Plays

#1
Sell 4/20 345/335 put spread
Sell 2026-04-20 345.0P / Buy 2026-04-20 335.0P
Short premium play inside pin support ($347.50–$352.50) capturing elevated near-term IV and positive GEX; tight defined risk if pin holds.
Credit: $0.60-$1.10
Max loss: $9.40
BE: $344.40
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if price < $342 for 30+ min or IV spikes >+8 vol pts.
Traders wanting defined-risk income with short horizon
#2
Reverse calendar: sell 5/15 352.5C buy 4/20 352.5C
Sell 2026-05-15 352.5C / Buy 2026-04-20 352.5C (reverse calendar)
Follows rule to sell the higher-IV leg (5/15 IV ~45.8%) and buy the lower-IV near-term (4/20 IV ~35%); collects term premium and profits if pin holds and short-dated decays slower than long-dated exposure.
Credit: $0.20-$0.80
Max loss: Limited to assignment/early-exercise and direction risk; monitor margin
BE: Requires short-dated decay to outpace longer leg; manage to roll if spot moves >$6 from strike
Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of collected credit; if spot trends >$360, buy back short 5/15 and reestablish as normal calendar.
Vol-arb traders who accept selling longer-term vega while capturing front-loaded theta
#3
Iron condor 4/20 around the pin
Sell 2026-04-20 335.0/345.0P × 355.0/365.0C (put wing lower)
Wider wing iron condor capitalizes on GEX pin at $352.5 and 1-week EM bounds; collects premium while staying inside 1-week EM $337.70–$367.15.
Credit: $0.90-$1.75
Max loss: $8.10
BE: Lower BE ~334.10 / Upper BE ~366.90
Mgmt: Take 50% profits if premium decays to 40% of entry; tighten wings or buy protection if spot moves outside $342–$362.
Defined-risk premium sellers with capacity for multi-leg management

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $350.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 345/335 put spread
IFIf spot remains between $347.50–$355.00 into 11:30 ET → Initiate iron condor 4/20 335/345P × 355/365C
IFIf IV differential (IV 5/15 – IV 4/20) ≥10 vol pts at ATM 352.5 → Enter reverse calendar: sell 5/15 352.5C / buy 4/20 352.5C
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot > $360.00 and short premium position losing >30% of max margin → Roll short calls up one strike and widen put side or close condor
ADJIf spot < $342.00 (break below 2d lower EM $343.70) → Buy protective 4/20 335.0P or close short put spreads immediately
Exit Triggers
EXITIf IV spikes +8 vol pts vs entry on the short leg → Close short premium positions (put spread/condor/reverse calendar short leg)
EXITIf short premium trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and remove directional exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-premium around the $350–$352.5 pin using defined-risk put spreads and a reverse calendar that sells the higher-IV longer leg; invalidation below $342 (sustained) or above $367.15 triggers directional rotations. Top plays: 4/20 345/335 put spread (defined-risk short), reverse calendar sell 5/15 buy 4/20 ATM (vol-term arbitrage), and 4/20 iron condor around pin — choose by time-horizon and capital profile.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
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