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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $393.45EOD only
Max Pain
$407.50
Next expiry Jul 6, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.07
2.8% from close
Price Gap
+14.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
Earnings Move History — TSLA
Historical stock price reactions to earnings announcements

Event-driven behavior view with EPS surprise context and post-event move distribution.

Turn Earnings Behavior Into a Setup
Decision-ready earnings framing, invalidation context, and setup details

Use the earnings report when you want setup selection, confidence context, and invalidation levels in one place.

Avg Move

+99.0%

Beat Rate

40%

Avg Surprise

-4.0%

Events

8

Report Context
Supporting confidence and setup preview

Top Setup Preview

Long Straddle: Buy 2026-07-24 $415.00 put + buy $415.00 call

Bullish regime, pinning gamma, strong call flow. Spot 8% from MP, VIX 18. Earnings 23d out.

Market close context: June 29, 2026

Earnings Storyline
Quick read on expected pricing, realized reaction, and directional behavior

Implied vs Realized Gap

+9.7%

Nearest implied move is 22.0% vs historical average realized move of 12.3%.

IV Crush Tendency (Proxy)

71%

Historical events finishing inside the nearest implied move.

Options currently price richer than typical realized earnings moves.

Post-Earnings Directional Bias

Downside Bias

Up 3 / Down 4 (57% dominant)

Average signed move: +10.6%

Earnings Reaction Distribution
Normalized percentage move on each reported event

Stock Move % on Earnings

Excluded 1 outlier point with invalid percent units.

Earnings Event Log
Detailed results for each reported quarter
DateTimeEPS EstEPS ActSurpriseStock MoveBeat?
Jul 22, 2026$0.46
Apr 22, 2026$0.35+28.0%
Apr 21, 2026$0.40-1.6%
Mar 31, 2026$0.35$0.41+17.15%+18.0%Yes
Dec 31, 2025$0.45$0.50+10.96%-1.0%Yes
Sep 30, 2025$0.56$0.50-10.53%+34.0%No
Jun 30, 2025$0.40$0.40-1.11%-1.8%No
Mar 31, 2025$0.41$0.27-34.89%-1.7%No
Next Step
Optional follow-through after reviewing historical evidence
Want the actionable earnings setup?View earnings report details
How to Read Earnings History
Use historical post-earnings behavior to frame the next event, not to assume the next quarter will repeat the last one.
What this page tells you

It shows how the stock has reacted to past earnings, including surprise history, average move size, and whether upside or downside reactions have tended to dominate.

How traders use it

Compare historical realized moves with the next implied move to judge whether options are pricing too much, too little, or roughly enough event risk.

What matters most

Recent quarters, current guidance, and current IV usually matter more than distant history, especially when the business or macro regime has changed.

Historical earnings behavior is best used to prepare for the next event before you choose a structure and size the risk.