Earnings Verdict
Earnings inferred for ~4/10 based on IV kink. IV is elevated (40.2% ATM for 4/10), making IV crush plays attractive. However, negative GEX suggests trending volatility, increasing gap risk. Best strategy is a short strangle to capitalize on IV crush, with defined risk.
base 5; +1 clear IV kink at 4/10; +0.5 elevated IV; -1.5 earnings date inferred, not explicit; -0.5 negative GEX (trending regime)
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp peak at 4/10 (40.2%) vs. 31.2% on 4/06, strongly inferring an earnings event that week.
⚠️Earnings date NOT explicit. Inferred for week of 4/10 based on IV kink. Confirm via company calendar.
📉Gamma regime shifted from Pinning to Trending (GEX -$49.7M). Dealers will amplify moves, not suppress them.
🔄Delta from prior report: Spot dropped from $371.75 to $360.59. GEX flipped from strongly positive to negative.
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-49.7M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-432.1M, P/C 0.71)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 6.3% (spot $360.59 vs MP $385)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-10 (8 days)inferred from IV kink
Expected moves:
- 4/10 (8d): ±$17.03 (4.7%) [$343.56 - $377.61]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (40.2%) vs 31.2% on 4/06 and 40.8% on 4/17. Elevated across curve.
Crush estimate: ~8-12 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~32% range.
Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.72 shows more call OI, but net premium heavily negative from put flow at strikes like $380.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise move vs. expected, but recent quarters show mixed surprises.
Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings, 2/4 gap down.
Key Levels
1$360 (spot nearest)
2$385 (near-term max pain)
3$342.5 (EM lower bound approx)
4$377.5 (EM upper bound approx)
5$350 (major call OI & flow support)
Flow Highlights
Massive volume in 4/10 $650C (101k vol vs 940 OI, IV 112.5%).
Extreme OTM lottery ticket buying, not a meaningful directional signal.
Large net premium outflow at $380 strike (-$49.9M), driven by put buying.
Significant bearish hedging or positioning just above the expected move upper bound.
Strong net premium inflow at $355 (+$22.6M) and $350 (+$21.8M) calls.
Bullish flow building support near and below the current spot.
Strategies
Short Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $342.5 Put x Sell $377.5 Call 4/10
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before inferred earnings date (4/07-4/08).
Elevated IV at the 4/10 expiration provides high premium. Strikes placed just outside the 4.7% expected move bounds. Negative GEX regime means pinning less likely, but IV crush is the primary edge.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $342.5-$377.5 and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds strangle wings by >$5.
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $345/$340P x Sell $380/$385C 4/10
Trigger: Enter 2 days before inferred earnings date.
Defined-risk alternative to the strangle. Collects premium on elevated IV while capping max loss. Wings are $5 outside the expected move bounds, providing a buffer given historical mixed moves.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $345-$380.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds the short strikes.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish/Breakdown)
Buy 1x $355 Put, Sell 2x $345 Put 4/10
Trigger: Enter if spot shows weakness heading into earnings, below $360.
Capitalizes on negative GEX (trending) and bearish flow at higher strikes ($380P). Benefits from IV crush on the two short puts. Offers a credit and profits on a down move within a range.
Outperforms: Stock moves down moderately, ideally to ~$345 at expiration.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply or collapses far below $335.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 4.7% EM, but TSLA can gap 8-12% on earnings/guidance. Negative GEX amplifies moves.
!IV crush: Estimated 8-12 vol point drop. Primary edge for short premium strategies.
!Date risk: Earnings date is inferred from IV kink, not explicit. Could be 4/08 or 4/10.
!Liquidity: Excellent. High OI and volume across strikes.
!Sizing: Size short premium positions for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio given elevated gap risk.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into the week of 4/07 for confirmation of earnings timing.
?Spot vs. $350 level (major call support per flow).
?Any unusual activity in 4/08 expiration, which could indicate earnings is actually 4/08 AMC.