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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $435.79EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.82
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

TSLA is in a High-vol, Pinning regime with strong net call flow and large positive dealer gamma (GEX +$137.8M). Best strategy is either a directional debit (long straddle/strangle) sized for the expected move or a premium sale iron/condor that banks on dealer pinning around the mid-360s — size smaller on directional given gap risk. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the EM rails and overwhelms positive GEX support.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Watch whether spot holds the GEX pin cluster at the mid-360s (360/365/367.5/370) into earnings; if it does, premium-selling works best.
📌Max pain for the next few expirations sits around $350-$355 while spot is $364.20 — watch whether dealers push toward those pins.
🔥Net premium flow heavily biased to calls at $350 and $360 (net call premium >$78M-$86M) — indicates large bullish positioning into earnings.
⚠️Gamma flip ~300 is well below current spot — if TSLA falls sharply toward 300, dealer behavior will change from damping to amplifying moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip ~300; below that, dealer gamma would flip and amplify moves (put OI concentration 18,526 at $300).

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 / 2026-04-22 (TBD) (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (6d): : : : :
  • 2026-04-20 (6d): : :
  • 2026-04-20 (6d): : $349.53 - $378.88 ()

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV is depressed (2026-04-15 ATM 30.5%) while the near-to-short wings show a material step: 2026-04-17 ATM 38.2% → 2026-04-24 ATM 52.4% (kink). Longer-dated ATM settles in the mid-40s.

Crush estimate: ~12-15 vol pts — expect near-term IV to re-price towards the low- to high-30s after the print (post-event ATM likely near ~38-40%).

Skew: Market is call-heavy (net premium flow concentrated in calls at 350/360/365), puts relatively cheaper; skew compresses around the mid-360s where dealers are concentrated.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat reported estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in pre-computed fields

Directional bias: Mixed-to-bearish in recent prints (1 clear beat, multiple misses), but current flow is bullish

Key Levels

1$360.00
2$365.00
3$350.00
4$370.00
5$375.00
6$400.00
7EM (6d): $349.53 - $378.88

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $360.00 and $350.00 (Net call premium $78,233,050 at $360; $86,787,241 at $350).

Large buyer/issuer action concentrated on the mid-350s to 360s — aligns with dealer pinning (GEX concentration at 360/365/367.5/370).

Top OI clusters deep out: large call OI walls $400-$500 (multiple strikes with 20k+ OI).

Structural long call interest far OTM creates long-term upside convexity but is distant relative to current EM; near-term action is focused mid-300s.

Unusual short-dated put/call prints concentrated at $362.50-$367.50 for 2026-04-15 (very high vol/turnover).

Aggressive positioning around the pin region — could accelerate pinning or amplify a quick move if flows unwind.

Strategies

Long straddle (capture surprise)
Buy 2026-04-17 365C + 2026-04-17 365P (buy 365 straddle exp 04-17)
Debit: $11.50-$11.55
Max loss: $11.55
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$352.67 / $375.73
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV on 04-17 has not already widened above the 38% level.
Straddle cost (~$11.50) matches the 04-17 expected move (±$11.53). With positive flow and a history of misses, there's tail risk for a large move that a long straddle captures.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 4/17 EM (±$11.53) or when directional surprise occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins inside the mid-360s and IV collapses back to the ~30s without a big gap move.
Near-term iron condor (premium sale + pin play)
Sell 2026-04-17 360P / Buy 2026-04-17 350P (put side) AND Sell 2026-04-17 375C / Buy 2026-04-17 385C (call side)
Credit: $6.80-$7.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $7.20
BE: Lower: ~352.80; Upper: ~382.20 (approx; sold strikes ± collected credit)
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if spot is in the mid-360s and GEX concentrations remain intact.
Large dealer GEX (+$137.8M) and concentrated pinning at 360/365/367.5/370 make short premium attractive; credit estimate uses mid-prices from listed near-term puts/calls (360 put mid ≈ 11.025, 350 put mid ≈ 7.15, 375 call mid ≈ 8.725, 385 call mid ≈5.60).
Outperforms: TSLA pins inside the 350-375 range and IV compresses after the print.
Underperforms: A guidance shock causes a gap beyond the 6d EM rails ($349.53 - $378.88).
Directional call spread (bullish, reduce cost)
Buy 2026-04-24 365C / Sell 2026-04-24 400C (calendar slightly longer to retain some post-earnings optionality)
Debit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: Up to width less debit (~$31.50 if width 35 minus debit)
BE: Strike-dependent; needs >365+debit to start profiting
Trigger: Enter if you want a bullish skew with limited cost and expect continued momentum post-print.
Captures bullish flow bias while limiting premium outlay; uses available strikes (365 & 400).
Outperforms: Stock rallies through the mid- to high-360s into the 380-400 area over the next 1-3 weeks.
Underperforms: Stock stays pinned and IV collapses without a sustained rally.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings/guidance could gap beyond the 6d EM rails ($349.53 - $378.88), especially on guidance surprises — premium sellers can be hurt quickly.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV already low (1d 30.5%) but mid-dates show a kink; long-dated positions will see IV re-pricing — straddles are sensitive to IV collapse.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid around 350-380 strikes (heavy volume and OI), but OTM wide strikes and deep OTM expirations have lower liquidity.
!Dealer gamma: Large positive GEX (+$137.8M) should dampen immediate move and favor pinning, which helps premium sellers but can hurt long volatility positions that need a big gap.

What to Watch

?Spot vs GEX pin cluster at 360/365/367.5/370 (holds or breaks)
?IV trajectory into the prints (watch 04-17 ATM 38.2% and 04-24 ATM 52.4% for changes)
?Unusual activity prints at 362.50 / 365 / 367.50 for short-dated expiries
?Pre- and post-earnings guidance language that could drive a gap beyond EM rails
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.