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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.23
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish pinning bias from call flow but tempered by 40% beat rate and gap/vol crush risks.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Spot pinned near $410-415; call OI wall $440 caps upside; vol crush ~10-15% expected.
🟢Call flow dominant; net premium $249M
🔴Beat rate only 40% historically
🟡Large put buys at $417.5 show hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,731 (28.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (62 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$8.22 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-26 (5d): ±$12.95 (3.1%)
  • 2026-05-27 (6d): ±$15.60 (3.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end IV ~33-35%; back-end elevated ~41%; steep.

Crush estimate: Expected ~10-15% crush post-earnings on weekly options.

Skew: Skew balanced; put vol elevated at lows.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No data for this event; beat rate 40%

Directional bias: Bullish flow and GEX

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $409.63/$426.08; 1w $404.90/$430.80
3Max pain pins: $410 (2026-05-22); $415 (2026-05-26); $425 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Massive volume in $420 call (146k) and $417.5 put (42k) vs OI.

Aggressive positioning near MP; dealer hedging reinforces pinning.

Strategies

Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $390.00 put + buy $470.00 call
Debit: $26.32-$32.18
Max loss: $32.18
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 357.82 / 502.18
Trigger: Exit pre-earnings if IV contracts; set stop on break below $410 support. Consider taking profit on spike.
Lower premium than straddle; captures volatility event with rally capped at $440 wall; front-end IV elevated.
Outperforms: Captures earnings move with limited initial premium; upside capped by call OI wall at $440, downside protected by put.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk below $410 support.
!Call OI wall $440-$500 may limit upside.
!Gap risk from low beat rate; vol crush could amplify move.

What to Watch

?$410 support; break could accelerate selling.
?IV term structure shift if vol persists.
?Post-earnings vol crush magnitude and gap fill.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.