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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $392.50EOD only
Max Pain
$375.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.27
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-17.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Mixed-near-term: high IV with meaningful pinning around $390–$392; market priced ~6% expected move, historical beat rate low (25%).

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Large, concentrated options flow pins price area near $390–$392 into earnings; expect strong IV and potential pinning/flip risk.
⚠️Large front-week put and call volumes concentrated at $390–$392 — pinning risk high.
📈Front-week IV elevated (60–72%); expect a material IV crush after results.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,564 (22.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-22 (1 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$22.65 (5.9%)
  • 2026-04-27 (6d): ±$24.45 (6.3%)
  • 2026-04-29 (8d): ±$26.55 (6.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV very elevated (60–72%) with nearby expirations > longer; front-week > front-month.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush likely large (~30–50% relative drop in front-week options).

Skew: Heavy downside put skew into $380–$397 strikes; calls also concentrated 385–392, creating bid/offer distortions.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves in-line to slightly larger than market expected; one recent beat only (25%).

Directional bias: Neutral-to-bearish skew historically; flow and put concentration bias downside tail risk.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $363.77/$409.07; 1w $361.97/$410.87
3Max pain pins: $380 (2026-04-24); $390 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive unusual prints and OI at $390–$392 strikes across 4/24 and 4/27 expiries.

Creates pinning pressure and large delta/gamma concentration near $390–$392; heightened gamma risk around those strikes.

Net premium sold large negative and put/call OI <1 but high put flow volume.

Client selling and large put prints suggest protection buying or directional hedges concentrated below spot.

Strategies

Iron condor (wide wings)
Sell 2026-05-01 $387.50/$370.00 put wing and $392.50/$405.00 call wing
Credit: $10.64-$13.01
Max loss: $4.49
Max gain: $13.01
BE: 374.49 / 405.51
Trigger: Trim/increase wings if price pins to 390–392 pre-close; close into sharp IV drop or if breach of wings occurs.
Collect rich front-week premium while capping tail risk near heavy flow at $390–392.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 387.5/392.5 shorts with 370/405 wings to monetize IV and limit losses if pin breaks; best tradeoff vs crush.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call calendar
Sell 2026-05-01 $400.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $400.00 call
Debit: $12.49-$15.26
Max loss: $15.26
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or buy back short leg if stock >~400 pre-earnings or IV collapses; monitor delta and adjust at invalidation 380.
Harvest front-week premium vs richer short IV while keeping upside exposure beyond crush.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 $400 call, buy 6/18 $400 to profit from rapid front-week IV decay and back-month stability.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (OTM)
Sell 2026-05-01 $370.00 put + sell $405.00 call
Credit: $13.23-$16.17
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $16.17
BE: 353.83 / 421.17
Trigger: Have hedges ready; cut or hedge quickly on fast directional move or pin breach.
Max premium but highest tail risk; use only if willing to manage unlimited risk.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 370 put and 405 call to capture high front-week premium; vulnerable to gamma flip at pin.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV and sizable post-earnings crush risk
!Pinning/gamma flip near $390–$392 can amplify intraday moves
!Flow concentration can create liquidity/quote instability
!Market downside bias given put interest

What to Watch

?Price vs max pain $390–$392 pre-close and into earnings
?Front-week IV levels and abrupt IV collapse post-release
?Unusual prints continuing into settlement (4/24–4/27 expiries)
?SPY/QQQ direction and VIX spikes around print
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.