Earnings Verdict
No near-term earnings; gamma pinning and bullish flow dominate.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Gamma pinning near $425-$430; put wall at $300.
🟢Bullish flow: positive net premium $3M, PC ratio 0.64.
🔴Bearish skew: extreme put IV in far OTM strikes.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,368 (29.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (68 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-18 (3d): ±$10.12 (2.4%)
- 2026-05-20 (5d): ±$16.57 (3.9%)
- 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$20.82 (4.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Slightly upward sloping: 3d ±2.4%, 5d ±3.9%, 7d ±4.9%.
Crush estimate: N/A (no earnings event).
Skew: Put skew elevated: $160 put IV 187.5%.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: N/A
Directional bias: Mixed; 40% beat rate historically.
Key Levels
1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $412.11/$432.36; 1w $405.66/$438.81
3Max pain pins: $410 (2026-05-15); $435 (2026-05-18); $430 (2026-05-20)
Flow Highlights
Massive put selling at $422.5 expiring today (vol/OI 41).
Dealers delta-hedging or pinning.
Unusual call volume at $425 5/18 (vol/OI 41.5).
Bullish positioning into weekly expiration.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip at $300 could accelerate selloff.
!Deep OTM put activity may distort skew.
What to Watch
?Max pain $410 today; $435 on 5/18.
?Call wall $445-$600 caps upside.