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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $381.61EOD only
Max Pain
$402.50
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.32
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+20.89
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 28d out; elevated near-term IV; low beat rate; mixed flow with heavy 0DTE calls.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Watch IV crush and historical directional bias post-earnings.
📊40% beat rate (2/5 qtrs) — low confidence in upside.
🔥0DTE calls at $377.5 (volume 96k vs OI 645) — extreme short-term speculation.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,309 (20.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$11.38 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-29 (5d): ±$14.67 (3.9%)
  • 2026-07-01 (7d): ±$18.38 (4.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV high (40%+), longer-term moderate; contango steepening as event approaches.

Crush estimate: ~20-30% post-earnings, typical for TSLA.

Skew: Call skew elevated on 0DTE; puts relatively subdued.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~±10% vs implied 7%; often exceeds.

Directional bias: Mixed; 40% beat rate, recent misses led to sharp drops.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $364.15/$386.90; 1w $360.85/$390.20
3Max pain pins: $388 (2026-06-24); $395 (2026-06-26); $392 (2026-06-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive 0DTE call volume at $375 and $377.5 strikes, OI ratios >100x.

Aggressive near-term bullish bets, possibly hedging or speculative.

Put OI concentrated Below spot, creating gamma flip at ~$300.

Potential support if spot drops, but also risk of accelerated selloff.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $370.00/$355.00 put wing and $390.00/$400.00 call wing
Credit: $7.63-$9.32
Max loss: $5.68
Max gain: $9.32
BE: 360.68 / 399.32
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or before earnings if move threatens.
Best for elevated IV with low beat rate; defined risk if TSLA stays within 355-390.
Outperforms: Sells OTM wings to capture premium decay; profits from IV crush and range-bound price.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $355.00 put + sell $400.00 call
Credit: $24.23-$29.62
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $29.62
BE: 325.38 / 429.62
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk; adjust strikes if delta exceeds 0.20.
Higher premium than condor, but unlimited tail risk; suits higher conviction of muted move.
Outperforms: Collects elevated premium from high IV; profits if TSLA stays within 355-400.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-06-26 $375.00 put + buy $375.00 call
Debit: $10.24-$12.51
Max loss: $12.51
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 362.49 / 387.51
Trigger: Exit pre-earnings or use stop-loss to limit IV crush.
TSLA often exceeds implied move; long straddle capitalizes on large post-earnings swing.
Outperforms: Buys at-the-money put and call to profit from big move in either direction.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-06-26 $370.00 put + buy $382.50 call
Debit: $5.58-$6.83
Max loss: $6.83
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 363.17 / 389.33
TSLA often exceeds implied move; strangle offers lower cost and wider breakevens, suitable for outsized moves.
Outperforms: Profit from TSLA's expected oversized post-earnings move with cheaper upfront cost than straddle.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (40%)
!Elevated IV decay if no catalyst
!Gamma flip at $300 could amplify moves
!Spot near $380, close to max pain

What to Watch

?Earnings date 7/22
?Key levels: $375 support, $400 resistance
?0DTE activity for pin action
?Implied move expansion into event
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.