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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $375.53EOD only
Max Pain
$395.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.38
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+19.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA earnings 7/22; IV elevated, beat rate 40%. Flow shows aggressive call buying near 375-377.5, but put activity at 405 signals hedging. Spot below max pain $390.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual call volume at 375/377.5 for near expiry suggests bullish positioning, yet put skew at 405 warns of downside risk. Mixed signals.
⚠️Spot below max pain and 200DMA; bearish tilt.
📈Aggressive call buying at 375/377.5 for near term.
🛡️Put skew at 405 indicates downside hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,498 (20.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (27 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$7.93 (2.1%)
  • 2026-06-29 (4d): ±$11.82 (3.2%)
  • 2026-07-01 (6d): ±$16.57 (4.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (1d ±2.1%), back-end extending (6d ±4.4%). IVs 33-57%.

Crush estimate: High, estimated 10-15% post-event.

Skew: Put skew at 405 IV 56.7% vs ATM ~37%, indicating downside protection demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move 4.5% vs implied 3.8% over last 4 quarters.

Directional bias: Mixed; 2 out of 4 moves upward post-earnings, but recent trend bearish.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $367.19/$383.04; 1w $358.54/$391.69
3Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-26); $390 (2026-06-29); $385 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

Large call buys at 375C (64k vol) and 377.5C (40k) for 6/26.

Bullish near-term positioning, targeting recovery to $375-380.

Unusual put volume at 405P (62k) with high IV 56.7%.

Hedging against downside risk or speculative bearish bet.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $350.00/$345.00 put wing and $390.00/$392.50 call wing
Credit: $1.04-$1.28
Max loss: $3.72
Max gain: $1.28
BE: 348.72 / 391.28
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.
Mixed signals and high crush estimate favor neutral defined-risk play.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put/call wings to collect premium with limited tail risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $390.00 call / buy 2026-07-10 $390.00 call
Debit: $2.88-$3.52
Max loss: $3.52
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor theta; close if spot nears short strike.
Front-end IV elevated; calendar captures decay and vol normalization.
Outperforms: Sells front-month call, buys back-month to exploit term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $385.00/$400.00 call spread
Debit: $4.77-$5.83
Max loss: $5.83
Max gain: $9.17
BE: $390.83
Trigger: Exit if spot falls below $385 before earnings.
Unusual call buying suggests upside bias; limited risk.
Outperforms: Buys call spread for directional exposure with capped loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-24 $370.00 put + buy $400.00 call
Debit: $24.05-$29.40
Max loss: $29.40
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 340.60 / 429.40
Historical move exceeds implied; strangle cheaper than straddle, benefits from large swing.
Outperforms: Capture TSLA's post-earnings volatility with long strangle, leveraging elevated IV and mixed signals.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings date 27 days out; IV crush risk if holding through event.
!Historical beat rate 40% increases miss probability.
!Heavy call OI at 400-500 may cap upside.

What to Watch

?Spot vs max pain $390; gamma flip near $300 if spot drops.
?Call wall at $400; break above could trigger short covering.
?Unusual flow in 6/26 contracts; watch for unwinding.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.