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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $406.43EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
3.3% from close
Price Gap
-6.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA in High-Vol, Bullish Flow regime with pinning near $400. 0DTE put selling dominates, net premium $154M positive. Resistance $420, support $400.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 16
Most important: Heavy 0DTE put selling with extreme volume/OI ratios suggests aggressive pinning to max pain $400 today; watch for break above $420 or below $400.
📉0DTE put sellers $154M premium, pinning to $400 max pain
🔴Gamma flip at $300: 27% put OI below spot
📈Call OI wall $450-$600, resistance $420

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,866 (27.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-17 (2d): ±$12.22 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$14.95 (3.6%)
  • 2026-06-22 (7d): ±$17.97 (4.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d IV ~40%), backwardation; longer-dated IV lower ~30%

Crush estimate: No event crush; IV stable from high GEX

Skew: Put skew elevated near spot from 0DTE put selling; calls suppressed

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit avg; beat rate 40% (2/5)

Directional bias: Mixed, recent moves: Q1 +8%, Q4 -7%, Q3 +6%

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $398.92/$423.37; 1w $393.17/$429.12
3Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-15); $400 (2026-06-17); $380 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

0DTE put sellers aggressively writing near-the-money puts (405-417.5) with volume/OI ratios >300x, net premium $154M positive.

Indicates strong conviction stock will stay above $400; max pain pinning likely.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $400.00/$395.00 put wing and $420.00/$425.00 call wing
Credit: $3.67-$4.48
Max loss: $0.52
Max gain: $4.48
BE: 395.52 / 424.48
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or near expiration if price stays in range.
Best for pinning near $400 with defined risk; support $390 and resistance $420 limit move.
Outperforms: Sell $400/$395 put spread and $420/$425 call spread to capture theta and pinning.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00 put + sell $420.00 call
Credit: $30.40-$37.15
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $37.15
BE: 362.85 / 457.15
Trigger: Set stop-loss at $395 or $425; roll if breached.
Captures premium from high IV and pinning but has unlimited loss; less safe than iron condor.
Outperforms: Sell $400 put and $420 call to profit from time decay and pinning.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $420.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $420.00 call
Debit: $12.15-$14.85
Max loss: $14.85
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock approaches $400 or before expiry.
Exploits front-end IV premium and backwardation, but depends on volatility decline; less direct pinning play.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $420 call, buy back-month $420 call to profit from term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $300 (put OI concentration 27% below spot)
!Resistance $420-$430 with heavy call OI
!Call wall $450-$600 caps upside
!Put floor $240-$300

What to Watch

?Max pain $400 today
?0DTE settlement
?SPY/QQQ momentum
?Break above $420 or below $400
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.