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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $411.15EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.22
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-11.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
79
High premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA earnings 36d out (July 22). IV elevated: 2.1% exp move 1d. Historical beat rate 40%. Heavy put activity near spot, net premium -$75.7M (net buying). Max pain $410 pinning.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: High put volumes on 6/17 options indicate hedging; gamma pinning near $410 may limit short-term moves.
🐻Net put premium buying: -$75.7M despite 0.81 put/call vol ratio (calls vol higher).
📌Gamma pinning at $410 may cap upside near-term.
⚠️Heavy put hedging contradicts positive gamma regime.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,633 (25.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-17 (1d): ±$8.65 (2.1%)
  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$11.97 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-22 (6d): ±$15.50 (3.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV high (1d 2.1%, 2d 3.0%, 6d 3.8%). Skew put-skewed from heavy put activity.

Crush estimate: Minimal: <5% post-earnings IV drop due to 36d to expiry.

Skew: Put concentration at $400-$420; call OI heavy above $430.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A for 36d out; recent 40% beat rate with larger misses.

Directional bias: Slightly bearish; recent earnings saw bigger downside moves.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $396.01/$413.31; 1w $389.16/$420.16
3Max pain pins: $410 (2026-06-17); $375 (2026-06-18); $402 (2026-06-22)

Flow Highlights

Large volume on 6/17 $402.50P (79x OI) and $405C (69x).

Positioning near spot, possibly straddles or hedges.

Heavy put buying at $400, $402.5, $415, $420.

Downside protection across multiple strikes.

Strategies

Bearish Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $395.00/$375.00 put spread
Debit: $7.38-$9.02
Max loss: $9.02
Max gain: $10.98
BE: $385.98
Trigger: Exit if TSLA closes above $410; stop loss at spread cost.
Aligned with heavy put activity and bearish bias; defined risk with invalidation at $410 max pain.
Outperforms: Expresses downside view while limiting risk; benefits if TSLA declines below $395 by Aug 21.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $400.00 put + sell $425.00 call
Credit: $11.81-$14.44
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $14.44
BE: 385.56 / 439.44
Trigger: Close if stock breaks beyond $400 or $425; monitor gamma risk.
Leverages high IV and pinning near $410; short-term premium decay if stock stays range-bound.
Outperforms: Sells put and call to collect premium; profits if TSLA stays between $400 and $425.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00 put + buy $445.00 call
Debit: $20.90-$25.55
Max loss: $25.55
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 354.45 / 470.55
Trigger: Hold through earnings; consider exiting early if IV spikes.
Captures large move potential with minimal IV crush; expensive but unlimited upside if big swing occurs.
Outperforms: Buys out-of-money put and call to profit from significant move in either direction.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Short gamma risk from high put OI near spot.
!Earnings gap risk: 40% beat rate leads to larger moves.
!Vol crush if no surprise given long time to event.

What to Watch

?6/17 expiration: $410 max pain pinning.
?Unusual put activity at $415 and $420 for downside hedging.
?Flow continuation: more put buying could signal bearish sentiment.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.