thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $400.49EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.32
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA earnings 34d out; bullish flow and gamma pinning near $400; IV elevated with crush risk. Focus on deliveries and margins.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: High gamma pinning and call OI wall could cap upside; monitor spot reaction to key levels.
📊Beat rate 40% but low sample; expect volatility.
🔥Unusual call volume 60x OI at $392.5 suggests aggressive bullish bets.
🚗Focus on delivery numbers and auto margins; key catalysts.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,261 (25.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-22 (4d): ±$9.32 (2.3%)
  • 2026-06-24 (6d): ±$15.03 (3.8%)
  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$18.55 (4.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango; front-week IV ~25-30%, back-month ~35-40%.

Crush estimate: ~10-15% IV drop post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated on downside protection; calls heavily traded.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Average move ~2.5% vs implied ~2.3%; slightly larger.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish tendency but low sample.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $385.46/$415.51
3Max pain pins: $372 (2026-06-18); $400 (2026-06-22); $402 (2026-06-24)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying at $392.5 and $395 strikes; put volume high at $387.5.

Bullish sentiment dominating; market leaning into pinning near $400.

High net premium flow $1.17B call-heavy.

Institutional positioning for upside with near-term expiration.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $390.00/$380.00 put wing and $420.00/$425.00 call wing
Credit: $5.06-$6.19
Max loss: $3.81
Max gain: $6.19
BE: 383.81 / 426.19
Trigger: Close near 50% max profit or adjust at 1.5x credit.
Defined risk, captures elevated IV crush, fits neutral expected move.
Outperforms: Sell 390/380 put and 420/425 call, net credit ~$6.19.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $380.00 put + sell $425.00 call
Credit: $23.87-$29.18
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $29.18
BE: 350.82 / 454.18
Trigger: Roll if spot approaches strikes; target 50% profit.
Higher premium capture but unlimited risk, suited for confident neutral view.
Outperforms: Sell 380 put and 425 call, net credit ~$29.18.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $420.00/$425.00 call spread
Debit: $1.48-$1.81
Max loss: $1.81
Max gain: $3.19
BE: $421.81
Bullish bias, gamma pinning $400, call wall $425-$430 targets.
Outperforms: Moderate upside via debit spread, limited crush impact.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning risk near $400 max pain
!IV crush post-earnings could nullify premium
!Low volume on deep OTM puts suggests tail risk ignored

What to Watch

?Spot holding above $390 support
?Call OI wall at $430-$600
?Put flow at $370 and below
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.