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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $400.49EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.32
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA earnings 30 days out; low beat rate (40%) and heavy put flow suggest downside risk. IV expects moves up to 4.6% in 1 week.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Heavy put volumes at 407.5/405 strikes indicate bearish positioning; low historical beat rate raises caution.
🐻Heavy put flow at $407.5/$405 signals bearish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,319 (25.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-24 (2d): ±$11.47 (2.8%)
  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$16.40 (4.0%)
  • 2026-06-29 (7d): ±$18.60 (4.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 2d implied 2.8%, 4d 4.0%, 7d 4.6%.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings; current IV elevated for the event.

Skew: Puts heavily traded near money; put OI concentrated below spot.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Slightly bearish (40% beat rate, 2/5).

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $393.57/$416.52; 1w $386.45/$423.65
3Max pain pins: $398 (2026-06-22); $398 (2026-06-24); $400 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Massive put volume at $407.5 and $405 strikes (vol/OI ratios 207x and 161x).

Aggressive put buying or hedging; signals bearish sentiment or downside protection.

Strategies

Bearish Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $390.00/$385.00 put spread
Debit: $1.71-$2.09
Max loss: $2.09
Max gain: $2.91
BE: $387.91
Trigger: Exit near $390 or at invalidation above $420.
Low beat rate & heavy put flow signal downside; spread caps risk.
Outperforms: Buy put spread to profit from expected drop; risk defined.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Volatility Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 put + buy $400.00 call
Debit: $53.80-$65.75
Max loss: $65.75
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 334.25 / 465.75
Trigger: Hold through earnings; consider gamma scalp.
Expected IV move 4.6% pre-earnings; straddle captures large move.
Outperforms: Long straddle to profit from volatility expansion; high premium.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (40%).
!Large put open interest below spot suggests downside pressure.
!Spot near support $397.5; break could accelerate selling.

What to Watch

?Earnings date July 22, 2026.
?Price action at $397.5 support and $420 resistance.
?Volatility of unusual put flow.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.