thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $406.43EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.32
3.3% from close
Price Gap
-6.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA near-term elevated IV with bullish flow, but earnings 40 days away. Max pain at $400 with heavy pinning activity.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Massive 0DTE call/put volume at $402.5 indicates dealer hedging around max pain.
🐂Heavy 0DTE call buying at $402.5 and $405
💀Put floor at $240-$300 provides downside buffer
⚠️Low beat rate (40%) suggests caution on earnings

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,020 (26.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (40 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-15 (3d): ±$13.32 (3.3%)
  • 2026-06-17 (5d): ±$20.07 (4.9%)
  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$22.12 (5.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (~40% for 5d), longer-term elevated; earnings still 5 weeks out.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush expected to be significant (20-30% drop) based on historical patterns.

Skew: Call skew elevated on heavy OTM call buying; put skew flattish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: TSLA earnings average post-earnings move ~6% vs 5% implied.

Directional bias: Slightly bearish due to historical beat rate of 40%.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $393.10/$419.75; 1w $386.35/$426.50
3Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-12); $400 (2026-06-15); $400 (2026-06-17)

Flow Highlights

Massive 0DTE call and put volume at $402.5 with vol/OI ratios >30.

Indicates active hedging near max pain at $400, pinning expected.

Large call OI wall from $430-$600.

Bullish sentiment with upside targets, but potential resistance if spot approaches.

Strategies

Iron Condor at Max Pain
Sell 2026-07-17 $400.00/$385.00 put wing and $420.00/$430.00 call wing
Credit: $8.82-$10.78
Max loss: $4.22
Max gain: $10.78
BE: 389.22 / 430.78
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if $400 breaks.
Elevated IV and gamma pinning at $400; theta decay benefits.
Outperforms: Sells wings $385/$400/$420/$430, capturing IV crush and pinning.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Earnings Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 put + buy $430.00 call
Debit: $52.54-$64.21
Max loss: $64.21
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 335.79 / 494.21
Trigger: Sell 1 week before earnings to avoid crush.
Earnings catalyst may produce >6% move; but high cost and time decay.
Outperforms: Long 400 put and 430 call, betting on large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Earnings Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 put + buy $400.00 call
Debit: $64.10-$78.35
Max loss: $78.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 321.65 / 478.35
Trigger: Exit before earnings to avoid crush.
Straddle requires more volatility than strangle; less attractive given bearish bias.
Outperforms: Long straddle at $400, bets on realized vol > implied.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Volatility expansion if spot breaches $400 gamma flip level.
!Crowded call positions above $430 may lead to sharp unwind on downside.
!Earnings still 40 days away; theta decay may offset IV crush.

What to Watch

?Spot price action around $400 max pain.
?Gamma flip at $400 (key dealer hedging level).
?Further unusual 0DTE activity for directional clues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.