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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $404.66EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.65
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+5.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
90
High premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA earnings 35 days out; 0dte gamma pin near $400-405 dominates near-term, while long-dated OTM calls show speculative froth. 40% beat rate and negative net premium suggest cautious bearish lean.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX 18; override: Base 7.5; strong near-term gamma pin offsets mixed history
Most important: Gamma pin at $400-405 is key near-term force; earnings event looms but spot must break call wall at $420 or put floor at $240 to truly move.
📌Max pain at $405 driving 0dte gamma activity; spot may pin here.
⚠️Heavy put volume at $400 shows hedge desks loading downside protection.
🔥Far OTM call buying at $620 and $575 reflects speculative froth; often a warning sign.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,093 (24.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$8.72 (2.2%)
  • 2026-06-22 (5d): ±$13.72 (3.5%)
  • 2026-06-24 (7d): ±$18.10 (4.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 0dte IV low (6-17%), long-dated OTM calls IV >80% (explosive). Put skew high near term; call skew elevated on far OTM.

Crush estimate: Expected 60-70% IV drop post-earnings from current ~80-90% implied for event date.

Skew: Near-term put skew elevated (15.9% vs 8.2% call); far-dated call skew extreme (82-94%) indicating lottery bidding.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 2% avg move vs 2.2% expected; beats outperformed, misses cut deeper.

Directional bias: Slightly bearish: 60% miss rate, negative premium flow, and heavy hedging.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $387.66/$405.11; 1w $382.66/$410.11
3Max pain pins: $405 (2026-06-17); $370 (2026-06-18); $405 (2026-06-22)

Flow Highlights

0dte massive call volume at $402.5 (98.5x) and $405 (79.6x) expiring worthless; heavy put volume at $397.5 and $400.

Gamma manipulation to pin spot near max pain $405; downside hedging via puts suggests cautious positioning.

Long-dated $620 call (IV 94.9) and $575 call (IV 82.0) saw high vol/OI ratios.

Speculative bullish bets on far out-of-the-money strikes, indicating low-probability upside tail hedging.

Strategies

Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $375.00 put / buy 2026-07-24 $375.00 put
Debit: $2.72-$3.33
Max loss: $3.33
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; stop loss if spot drops below $373.
Exploits steep term structure and expected 60-70% IV crush, aligns with slightly bearish bias.
Outperforms: Sell near-term put, buy later-dated put to capture term spread decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $380.00/$375.00 put wing and $415.00/$420.00 call wing
Credit: $3.24-$3.96
Max loss: $1.04
Max gain: $3.96
BE: 376.04 / 418.96
Trigger: Manage at 25-50% max gain; adjust wings if spot approaches strikes.
Benefits from range-bound expectation and IV crush; defined risk, credit strategy.
Outperforms: Short wings around expected range, earning premium from IV drop.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00 put + buy $400.00 call
Debit: $42.37-$51.78
Max loss: $51.78
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 348.22 / 451.78
Earnings catalyst 35 days; gamma pin near $400 but potential breakout; IV ~80% for event.
Outperforms: Buy straddle before TSLA earnings to profit from large move, as implied volatility is elevated.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma squeeze risk near $400-405 as 0dte options approach expiration; potential for sharp move if spot breaks pin.
!Large OI walls: call resistance at $420-500, put floor at $240-300, could cap moves.
!Earnings 35 days away; time decay erodes premium but IV uncertain; beat rate mixed.

What to Watch

?Spot price relative to $400 and $405 for gamma direction post-0dte expiry.
?IV levels on shorter-dated options for early volatility expectations.
?Unusual flow continuation: follow $620 and $575 calls for sentiment cues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.