thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $404.11EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.10
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+13.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA sees heavy call buying near support, pinning at $400-$418. High volume in 0DTE calls suggests aggressive bullish positioning. IV elevated but no nearby earnings.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Massive unusual call volume at $402.5, $397.5, $405 strikes for 0DTE; 115k+ contracts at $405. Put wall at $382.5 protects downside. Max pain at $418 for 5/20.
🧐0DTE call buyers absorbed >300k vol above $385; dealer convexity positive.
⚠️Put OI at $382.5 (26k vol, 41x OI) suggests floor; below triggers gamma traps.
📊Historical beat rate 40% but post-earnings moves overshoot; next event Jul 22.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,250 (25.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (64 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-20 (1d): ±$8.10 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$14.33 (3.5%)
  • 2026-05-26 (7d): ±$17.50 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated: 0DTE ~35%, 3-day ~45%, 7-day ~55%. Skew slightly negative, puts expensive on OTM.

Crush estimate: N/A (no earnings event within 30 days)

Skew: Put skew elevated at strikes <$385; calls outpace puts with aggressive buying.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 40% (2/5) with wide post-earnings swings avg ±8% vs expected ±5%.

Directional bias: Neutral: beat rate below 50%, but strong call flow may indicate bullish sentiment.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $396.01/$412.21; 1w $386.61/$421.61
3Max pain pins: $418 (2026-05-20); $415 (2026-05-22); $422 (2026-05-26)

Flow Highlights

0DTE call block trades: >50k vol each at $402.5, $397.5, $405, often against OI near zero.

High conviction bullish directional bets; likely large dealer hedging. Pinning pressure near $400+.

Unusual put volume: 80k vol at $395 put (33x OI), 44k at $402.5 put (30x OI).

Hedging or bearish bets; may cap upside if spot holds below $418.

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at 300 (25.8% below spot) – if breached, delta hedging could amplify sell-off.
!High OTM call activity introduces pin risk near expiration; spot 3.2% below MP may drag to $418.
!Elevated VIX (18) suggests broader market uncertainty may spill over.

What to Watch

?Max pain pin levels: $418 (5/20), $415 (5/22) – spot below $400 may rally into expiration.
?Volume confirmation on $400-$405 call wall; if vol sustains, resistance at $417.5.
?VIX direction: if VIX drops below 17, bullish momentum may accelerate.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.