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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $386.42EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$22.65
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-6.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence bullish pinning into near-term expiries with elevated IV and concentrated call OI above spot; favors limited upside pin around $390–$410 but tail risk remains.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Call OI wall $410–$500 + heavy call prints near $390–$392.5 creating pinning/short-gamma pressure.
📌Pinning likely around $390–$392.5 from heavy call OI and prints.
⚠️Front-week IV extremely elevated; expect a sharp IV crush post-event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,016 (22.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$20.55 (5.3%)
  • 2026-04-27 (5d): ±$22.68 (5.9%)
  • 2026-04-29 (7d): ±$25.28 (6.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very steep short-dated IV (70–117) collapsing further out; front-week elevated vs 1w+.

Crush estimate: Material crush anticipated post-event: ~30–50% of front-week IV.

Skew: Put skew heavy below spot (concentrated puts ~315–390) while large call skew at 390–515.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Observed moves smaller than implied; beat rate low (25%).

Directional bias: Bullish short-term bias due to flow and GEX pinning.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $366.96/$408.06; 1w $364.84/$410.19
3Max pain pins: $382 (2026-04-24); $388 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive call prints and OI at 390–392.5 on 4/24 and 4/27 expiries.

Creates pinning/short-gamma that can dampen downside and anchor price near strike.

Put concentration ~22.6% of OI below spot; large unusual put vols at 315–392.5.

Provides asymmetric downside protection but increases gamma flip risk if spot falls.

Strategies

Front‑week put calendar (sell May 390 / buy Jun 390)
Sell 2026-05-01 $390.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $390.00 put
Debit: $11.34-$13.86
Max loss: $13.86
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close front‑week leg into any sharp move below 385 or into IV crush post‑event; roll long leg farther if needed.
Harvests steep front‑week IV around 382–390 while retaining longer protection; highest premium per risk.
Outperforms: Collects near‑term premium expecting pinning/limited downside into expiry; long June preserves upside if break occurs.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call diagonal (Sell May 405 / Buy Jun 430)
Sell 2026-05-01 $405.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $430.00 call
Debit: $5.13-$6.27
Max loss: $6.27
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short leg on strong pin break above 405 or into IV collapse; trim long leg after crush.
Sells steep near‑term call IV where flow concentrates while keeping longer upside via Jun call.
Outperforms: Harvests front‑week IV premium and limits upside gamma vs naked call sell.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-01 $380.00/$405.00 call spread
Debit: $9.34-$11.41
Max loss: $11.41
Max gain: $13.59
BE: $391.41
Call OI pin 390–410 suggests limited upside; buy lower call at the pin, sell higher to reduce premium decay ahead of crush.
Outperforms: Defined-risk bullish spread to collect upside within 390–410 while limiting theta/IV crush exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large post-event IV crush can erase premiums
!Gamma pinch: rapid moves if pin breaks
!Unclear earnings date increases timing risk

What to Watch

?Front-week expected move ±$20.55 (4/24)
?Max pain pins $382–$390 and call wall $410–$500
?Unusual prints: 4/24 and 4/27 390–392.5 call & 332.5–390 puts
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.