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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.59EOD only
Max Pain
$425.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.20
1.9% from close
Price Gap
-8.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-IV, negative dealer gamma (GEX -$71.4M) with clear pinning around $360 makes premium-selling into the range the favored trade. Best strategy: structured premium sale (iron condor/credit spread) sized to survive a ~±5% gap. Key risk: guidance-driven gap that exceeds EM guardrails ($326–$360), which would blow out short wings.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pre-computed); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term structure into the Apr 21/22 dates and whether put-heavy premium at $360 persists (net premium large negative at that strike).
📌Max pain is clustered at $360 across near expirations (2026-04-08, -10, -13 all at/near $360).
⚠️Dealer gamma net negative (GEX -$71.4M) — expect larger intraday moves and slippage on directional trades.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (13 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (12d): 7.62 (6.3%) [$321.62 - $364.88]

IV Setup

Term structure: ATM IV is elevated across near expirations (2d 53.2% → 5d 44.3% → 16d 53.8%), showing a front-end hump and a larger 16d ATM (53.8%). This indicates event-related skew and higher medium-dated IV around the earnings window.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts (likely reversion to mid-40s ATM after the event; pre-computed near-term ATM for 12d/16d implies IV may fall from ~53% down toward ~44-46%).

Skew: Puts are heavier at key strikes (notable large put premium at $360 and concentrated put OI), so downside protection is priced richer than symmetric calls at some expirations.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters showed positive EPS surprise: 2025-12-31 +0.11)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in pre-computed fields; historical results show mixed reactions with one strong miss (2025-03-31 -0.35) and otherwise small surprises.

Directional bias: Mixed (1/4 quarters gap up; other quarters flat-to-down)

Key Levels

1$321.62 (EM lower bound, next 2 weeks)
2$329.12 (1w EM lower bound)
3$332.45 (2d EM lower bound)
4$354.05 (2d EM upper bound)
5$357.38 (1w EM upper bound)
6$360.00 (max pain / pin concentration)

Flow Highlights

Net premium concentrated at $360.00: Call $41,683,246 / Put $98,991,080 / Net $-57,307,834

Large put-side premium at $360 indicates heavy tail protection or delta-hedged selling into this strike; dealers likely long puts and short calls exposure driving pinning pressure toward $360.

$360.00 call OI heavy in chain: OI=18,294 with Vol=71,859 (near-term GEX concentration +$4.1M at $360.00)

High activity at $360 (both call OI and large put premium) creates a magnet effect; dealers will hedge flows around this strike in the short term.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (premium sell)
Sell 1x 355/360 call vertical and sell 1x 330/325 put vertical (all exp 2026-04-20/21 window; strikes available: 355, 360, 330, 325).
Credit: $2.60-$3.20
Max loss: $2.40
Max gain: $3.20
BE: $(spot - credit) and $(spot + credit) approximations (roughly 340.65/346.45 on the call side and 337.45/333.05 on the put side depending on executed prices)
Trigger: Enter 2–4 days before earnings if IV remains elevated (>50% ATM) and wide bid/ask tighten.
Negative GEX and heavy put premium centered around $360 make call-side wing safer; historical mixed beats and EM implying ~±5–6% moves favor premium sale sized to survive an earnings gap.
Outperforms: Stock remains inside EM guardrails (next 1–2 week range ~$329–$357) and IV compresses post-event.
Underperforms: Guidance or surprise causes >±5% gap beyond wings or IV spikes further before entry.
Long straddle (vol play)
Buy the 345 straddle (buy 345 call + buy 345 put) exp 2026-04-24/closest post-earnings expiry where liquidity allows (345 strike available).
Max loss: $17.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approximately 328.25 / 362.25 (mid price estimate: call ~7.75 + put ~9.20 = ~16.95 cost; use actual fills)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before earnings if you expect a >30% move relative to EM or if IV has not already run up beyond mid-50s.
Straddle captures large one-sided move; choose 345 to sit near spot and use the rich ATM IV to your advantage if you expect a bigger-than-EM reaction.
Outperforms: Actual move post-earnings exceeds the current EM (~±5–6%) and IV remains elevated into the put/call expirations.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $360 or $345 and IV crushes quickly, eroding premium.
Directional call spread (bull skew)
Buy 1x 345/360 call debit spread exp 2026-04-24 (available strikes 345 & 360).
Debit: $1.10-$1.60
Max loss: $1.60
Max gain: $13.40
BE: Entry price + 345 (e.g., if paid $1.60, breakeven ~346.60)
Trigger: Enter after an earnings catalyst that implies upside guidance or when unusual call flow (ITM call buying) intensifies and IV is stable.
Limits downside premium bleed vs outright calls. Use observed heavy ITM call flows (340/342.5/347.5 activity) as evidence of asymmetric upside interest while capping cost.
Outperforms: Stock gaps or runs above ~350 quickly post-earnings and skew flattens (calls cheapen less than puts).
Underperforms: Stock moves down or pins; IV crush removes edge on a small up-move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for 12d/close-to-earnings implies ±$21.62 (6.3%) to $321.62–$364.88; guidance surprises can exceed these bounds quickly and blow out short wings.
!IV crush: Expect ~8–10 vol point compression post-event; long option buyers risk rapid vega loss even if delta move is moderate.
!Dealer gamma: Net negative GEX (-$71.4M) means dealers will amplify intraday moves, increasing slippage and path risk for directional trades.
!Liquidity / execution: Heavy volume at specific strikes (e.g., 360 call vol 71,859) helps execution, but very wide bid/ask on some strikes (high IV points) can increase realized cost—price fills matter.
!Sizing: For premium-selling, keep wing width and position size sized to absorb 1–1.5x EM gaps; for long vol, limit cost to a small % of portfolio given probable IV crush.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into Apr 21/22 (does 16d ATM stay elevated at ~53.8% or roll lower?)
?Unusual activity at ITM strikes: 347.50P (Apr10) & heavy 340/342.5/345 call flow (Apr10) — trades may foreshadow directional bias
?Net premium at $360 (Call $41.7M / Put $99.0M) and whether dealers adjust hedges around that strike
?SPX/tech-wide tape on earnings day (broad risk-off amplifies negative GEX effects)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.