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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $426.01EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.85
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-11.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
66
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

40% historical beat rate with 57 days to earnings; near-term IV unusually low then spiking; strong call flow and gamma pinning at $420.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: GEX pinning and massive 0DTE activity dominate; earnings far out, so short-term dynamics key.
📊Call OI wall at $500-$600; put floor $250-$300 provides structural boundaries.
💸Net premium flow $808M bullish, but note 0DTE gamma risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (57 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-27 (1d): ±$8.20 (1.9%)
  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$15.00 (3.5%)
  • 2026-06-01 (6d): ±$17.95 (4.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very low 0DTE IV (~4-8%) then sharp rise to 32-48% for 1-3DTE, plateauing ~47% at 37DTE.

Crush estimate: No immediate crush; 57 days out, IV likely stable near current levels.

Skew: Call skew positive; put skew steep near pinning strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A for this cycle; historical beat rate 40% (2/5).

Directional bias: Neutral; data insufficient for trend.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $425.39/$441.79; 1w $415.64/$451.54
2Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-26); $425 (2026-05-27); $415 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

0DTE $432.50 put and call massive vol/OI ratio >170

Aggressive hedging or directional positioning near pinning strike.

Large $430 put volume (192k) on 0DTE

Put buying deep ITM likely hedging or bearish bets near max pain.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $410.00 put + sell $452.50 call
Credit: $8.96-$10.95
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $10.95
BE: 399.05 / 463.45
Trigger: Manage gamma risk, adjust strikes if IV expands.
Captures high near-term IV with neutral bias; liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Sells puts/calls at 10 DTE to harvest premium from IV spike.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $410.00/$395.00 put wing and $460.00/$475.00 call wing
Credit: $5.62-$6.88
Max loss: $8.12
Max gain: $6.88
BE: 403.12 / 466.88
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or on IV shift.
Bounded risk neutral play, benefits from high IV.
Outperforms: Credit spread with wings, defined risk/reward.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-05-29 $420.00 put + buy $450.00 call
Debit: $4.40-$5.38
Max loss: $5.38
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 414.62 / 455.38
Trigger: Close on IV spike; not for holding to earnings.
Cheap long vol on possible $420 pinning break.
Outperforms: Buys OTM put and call for large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Non-earnings short-term vol risk from 0DTE activity
!Gamma pinning near $420 may cause rapid reversals
!Earnings far off reduces immediate event risk

What to Watch

?0DTE gamma levels and max pain pivots
?Unusual $432.50 strike activity for next expiry
?Net premium flow direction over next sessions
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.