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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.45EOD only
Max Pain
$425.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.15
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-8.45
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
76
High premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA flow heavy on weekly expiry with massive 0DTE activity; earnings 70 days away, focus on pinning and IV crush post-expiry.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual put/call activity at $447.5 and $452.5 suggests aggressive hedging ahead of weekly close.
🔍Heavy call OI at $450-$475 suggests bullish sentiment, but may act as resistance
⚠️Unusual put buying at $447.5 likely hedging, not directional bearish

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$15.50 (3.5%)
  • 2026-05-18 (5d): ±$19.55 (4.4%)
  • 2026-05-20 (7d): ±$24.10 (5.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 2d 3.5%, 5d 4.4%, 7d 5.4%

Crush estimate: Expected ~50-70% IV drop post-expiry

Skew: Put/call OI ratio 0.76, call-heavy; but put activity at $447.5 tail risk

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Bullish flow and gamma pinning, but beat rate only 40%

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $429.77/$460.77; 1w $425.72/$464.82
2Max pain pins: $428 (2026-05-13); $400 (2026-05-15); $420 (2026-05-18)

Flow Highlights

0DTE $447.5 put/call activity with 109k/165k volume, vol/oi >30

Expiration hedging: likely market makers managing strikes near spot

Weekly $452.5 put sweep, 6368 vol vs 128 OI, IV 49.7%

Speculative put buying betting on a down move by Friday

Strategies

Long Strangle on TSLA
Buy 2026-07-17 $415.00 put + buy $515.00 call
Debit: $32.27-$39.44
Max loss: $39.44
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 375.56 / 554.44
Trigger: Hold through earnings; exit before IV crush or adjust if pinned at $450.
Only eligible candidate; unusual put/call at $447.5/$452.5 and 50-70% IV crush favors convexity.
Outperforms: Buy put $415 and call $515 for non-directional earnings move, given 40% beat rate.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Spot above max pain $450 call wall; pinning risk at $450
!0DTE gamma flip could spike IV into close
!Low VIX but elevated single-stock IV for weekly expiry

What to Watch

?Expiration pin action at $447.5 and $450
?Post-expiry gap risk and next week's open
?Large OI at $475 and $500 calls for future resistance
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.