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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $426.01EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.85
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-11.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
59
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-IV, negative dealer gamma (GEX -$42.0M) with mixed flow and spot trading below max-pain. Best strategy is a calibrated premium sale inside the 1-week EM (iron/condor) or a volatility buy (straddle) sized small — this is an IV-crush / pinning environment where dealers will try to pin between $355-$360. Key risk: gap moves amplified by negative GEX and heavy long-dated call OI; a >~5% gap would break dealer pinning and punish short-premium sellers.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5.0; +2.0 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pre-computed); 0.0 no penalty from data quality
Most important: Watch IV term structure into the 4/10–4/15 expirations and the $340–$360 unusual flow (big net premium at $340/$330 and heavy activity at $345/347.5 into 4/10).
📌Max pain near-term: $355 (4/10) then $360 (4/13–4/15) — dealers have GEX concentration near $360 (+$9.5M).
⚠️Dealer gamma is negative (GEX -$42.0M) — moves that breach pins may accelerate.
🔥Huge call premium at $340 and $330 (net +$64.4M and +$61.3M respectively) — bullish positioning into the short end.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (TBD) / 2026-04-22 (TBD) (12 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): : ±$7.47 (2.2%) [$338.14 - $353.09]
  • 2026-04-13 (4d): ±$11.47 (3.3%) [$334.14 - $357.09]
  • 2026-04-15 (6d): ±$15.00 (4.3%) [$330.62 - $360.62]
  • 2026-04-24 (15d): ±$29.52 (8.5%) [$316.09 - $375.14]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is elevated: 4/10 ATM 51.7% then drops to low-40s for 4/13–4/20 (4/13 ATM 40.2%). Longer 15d–22d points show another hump (4/24 ATM 52.9%). Market IV (Avg IV) is 65.4% but front-dated ATM sits ~40–52% depending on expiry.

Crush estimate: Expect a post-event IV drop of ~8–12 vol pts back toward the 40–45% band for front expirations (i.e., 51.7% → ~40–45%).

Skew: Flow shows outsized net premium at $340 and $330 (big call buying) while net premium at far calls ($500/$385) is strongly negative; puts are concentrated deep OTM but overall P/C OI is 0.66. Skew and unusual flow show short-dated call buying around $335–$347.5 and heavy put interest at $340 in 4/10 flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat; 2025-12 beat, others mixed)

Avg move vs expected: Historical EPS surprises mixed; recent misses (2025-03 large miss). No reliable pattern of consistently beating the EM.

Directional bias: Mixed — not persistently upside; last four quarters show 1 beat, 2 misses, 1 small beat/miss split.

Key Levels

1$338.14
2$330.62
3$355.00
4$360.00
5$370.00

Flow Highlights

Net premium heavy at $340.00 (Call $126,486,408 / Put $62,042,780 / Net +$64,443,628).

Large buyer-driven call premium at $340 suggests bullish positioning into the short-dated expirations; dealers may hedge delta, increasing upside gamma exposure near $340.

Large negative net premium at far calls ($500.00: Net -$276,603,161; $385.00: Net -$69,617,858).

Significant sell-side or hedged positions out the curve; long-dated or deep OTM sellers likely reduce implied upside in the long tail and expose shorts to gap risk if a strong rally materializes.

Unusual high flow at 4/10 strikes: heavy-volume ITM calls (e.g., $345 call Vol 105,808, OI 3,594) and large ITM puts ($347.50 put Vol 76,230).

Aggressive short-dated positioning and gamma exposure around spot for the 4/10 expiries — raises pinning/punch-through risk into that expiration.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (front-run premium)
Exp 2026-04-13: Sell 340 put / Buy 330 put; Sell 355 call / Buy 365 call
Credit: $4.40-$4.80
Max loss: $5.20
Max gain: $4.80
BE: Downside ≈ $335.36; Upside ≈ $359.36
Trigger: Enter 2–4 days before expiry when IV > mid-40s and ask/bid spreads remain tight.
Collects rich short-dated premium inside the 4/13 EM; credit estimate derived from mid-prices on 4/13 chain (340 put mid ≈ $7.03 / 330 put mid ≈ $3.93 → net put credit ≈ $3.10; 355 call mid ≈ $2.265 / 365 call mid ≈ $0.73 → net call credit ≈ $1.535; total ≈ $4.635).
Outperforms: TSLA pins or stays inside the 4/13 EM band ($334.14 - $357.09) and IV grinds lower.
Underperforms: Stock gaps >~4% outside EM on earnings or catalysts, or if dealer gamma flips amplify a move (GEX -$42.0M).
Long straddle (tail hedge / directional vol buy)
Exp 2026-04-13: Buy 345 straddle (Buy 345 call + Buy 345 put)
Debit: $11.20-$11.80
Max loss: $11.80
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈ $333.3 / $356.8
Trigger: Buy 1–2 days before earnings if IV has not run up above the high-50s and you can size small (~1–2% of portfolio).
Mid-prices on the front chain give approximate straddle cost ~11.48 (call mid ≈ $6.125; put mid ≈ $5.35). Given high front IV and negative GEX, a large gap could spike gamma gains for buyers.
Outperforms: Actual move in underlying >~30% above the 4/13 EM (i.e., move >~$15 on the day), or surprise drives realized vol well above front IV.
Underperforms: Stock pins in $340–$355 and IV collapses post-event (expected 8–12 vol pt crush).
Bull call spread (directional bias with defined risk)
Exp 2026-04-24: Buy 350 call / Sell 370 call
Debit: $3.50-$5.50
Max loss: $5.50
Max gain: $16.50
BE: ≈ $353.50
Trigger: Initiate if flow confirms further call buying and IV on 15d contracts remains elevated relative to 6–8d.
Caps cost vs outright calls, benefits from dealer hedging if spot lifts toward call OI walls ($370+). Use 4/24 horizon to capture secondary move while avoiding the immediate 4/13 pin.
Outperforms: Stock moves up into the $360–$375 range over the next 2 weeks (inside 2-week EM $316.09 - $375.14).
Underperforms: Gap down or negligible move into expiry and long-dated IV collapses.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Front EM for 4/10–4/15 implies ±$7–$15 moves; negative GEX (-$42.0M) means dealer positioning can amplify breakouts — short-premium trades risk large gaps.
!IV crush: Expect ~8–12 vol point contraction on front expiries; long-vol trades must clear that cost and short-premium sellers should anticipate rapid IV decay post-event.
!Liquidity & flow: Very large premium flows at $340/$330 and heavy OI at $360–$370 and $370–$500 calls create potential slippage on large fills and asymmetric risk if calls reprice violently.
!Sizing: Keep position sizes small on long vol (straddle) due to high cost and on iron/condors due to tail gap risk; use defined-risk spreads where possible.
!Pin risk: Max pain and GEX concentrations (pins at $355, $360 and +$9.5M GEX at $360) increase the chance of pinning into expiries — short-premium inside those bands is favored but fragile.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for 4/10–4/15 expirations (front ATM IV 51.7% then mid-40s for 4/13).
?Unusual activity at 4/10 strikes (ITM calls/puts around $335–$347.5) and net premium flows at $340/$330.
?Bid-ask spreads and realized liquidity at chosen strikes (heavy flow at $345/$350 may widen spreads).
?Any news or guidance leading into 4/20–4/24 that could shift pin targets from $355/$360 to higher strikes (MP trend rising).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.