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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $400.62EOD only
Max Pain
$372.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.58
2.4% from close
Price Gap
-28.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning scenario into earnings with bullish flow and concentrated put interest ~23% below spot; expected sticky range near $385-$395 pre-release.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Pinning gamma + heavy short-dated put activity concentrated ~ $385-$395 is primary driver of price behavior.
📌Pinning gamma concentrated ~ $385–$395 — highest probability zone for expiry pin
⚠️Large near-dated volume implies sharp moves if pin breaks — manage liquidity risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,610 (23.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (1 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$23.27 (5.9%)
  • 2026-04-27 (7d): ±$24.62 (6.3%)
  • 2026-04-29 (9d): ±$26.77 (6.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very elevated near-dated IV into 4/20 expiries with steep drop afterward; far-dated skew rich at extreme strikes (800 call IV blown out).

Crush estimate: Material crush expected for 4/20 expiries — large IV decay; estimate ~40–60% of short-dated IV.

Skew: Put skew steep toward strikes just below spot; call skew sparse except deep OTM call pockets.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically smaller moves vs. model; beat rate 25% (1/4).

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias given flow and pinning despite low historical beat rate.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $367.88/$417.12
3Max pain pins: $385 (2026-04-20); $375 (2026-04-24); $385 (2026-04-27)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated unusual volume in 4/20 $390–397.5 puts and $392.5/$395 calls

Large short-dated flows creating pinning gamma around $385–$395

Net premium large and put/call ratios <1 with bullish flow regime

Buy-side flow and delta buying reinforcing upside pinning pressure

Strategies

Defined-wing iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $372.50/$355.00 put wing and $435.00/$457.50 call wing
Credit: $4.73-$5.79
Max loss: $16.71
Max gain: $5.79
BE: 366.71 / 440.79
Trigger: Trim or buy protection if price breaches wing(s); close into IV drop after print.
Captures rich near-dated IV while limiting tail risk from pinned gamma around $385–$395.
Outperforms: Collect short-dated premium with defined wings to survive pinning and expected IV crush; widest odds-weighted P/L with controlled loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (decay capture)
Sell 2026-05-01 $415.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $430.00 call
Debit: $7.67-$9.38
Max loss: $9.38
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close short leg into crush; adjust long if underlying gaps through short strike.
Exploits steep near-term IV decay and far-dated call richness while maintaining limited net debit.
Outperforms: Short May call to harvest post-event crush, long June call for upside exposure and skew protection.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $377.50 put + sell $420.00 call
Credit: $11.86-$14.49
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $14.49
BE: 363.01 / 434.49
Near-dated IV priced rich into a near-term event; pinning around 385–395 reduces tail risk vs large directional moves; expirations on/after the event to capture IV decline.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term short strangle into elevated IV around the 385–395 band to collect premium and benefit from post-event IV compression.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High short-dated liquidity risk at expiry
!Potential for rapid repricing if earnings surprise materially
!Deep OTM call IV pockets can cause asymmetric option moves

What to Watch

?Price action vs $385/$395 pin band pre-open and through print
?IV change in 4/20 expiries vs 4/24–4/29 term points
?Unusual block prints on 4/20 390–398 strikes
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.