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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $423.70EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.52
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 3, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 3, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA sees heavy call buying and pinning support ahead of July earnings.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Most important: Massive unusual call flow at weekly strikes suggests bullish positioning.
🚀Heavy call buying at 417.5 and 420 suggests bullish bias.
⚠️Put activity at 382.5 (13.6x vol/OI) shows downside hedging.
📊Gamma pinning at $420, $425, $430 for near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,970 (28.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-05 (1d): ±$8.18 (2.0%)
  • 2026-06-08 (4d): ±$12.62 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-10 (6d): ±$17.82 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV ~34-35%, back-month ~37%; slight contango.

Crush estimate: No earnings crush until Jul 22; weekly IV crush post-expiration ~5-10%.

Skew: Put skew elevated at lower strikes (382.5 put IV 43.9%) indicating tail risk hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move 3.2% vs implied 4.5% (higher IV); limited data.

Directional bias: 40% beat rate; recent 2 beats followed by rallies.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $410.28/$426.63; 1w $400.63/$436.28
3Max pain pins: $420 (2026-06-05); $425 (2026-06-08); $430 (2026-06-10)

Flow Highlights

417.5 Call: 46.9x vol/OI (45,990 vol vs 980 OI).

Aggressive near-term bullish bet.

420 & 425 Calls: over 200k combined vol, 12k OI.

Institutional scaling for gamma pinning.

382.5 Put: 13.6x vol/OI (1,493 vol vs 110 OI).

Hedging against downside tail risk.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $420.00/$425.00 call spread
Debit: $2.00-$2.45
Max loss: $2.45
Max gain: $2.55
BE: $422.45
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or if TSLA drops below invalidation level $388.
Heavy call buying and bullish bias with low near-term event risk.
Outperforms: Captures upside from expected rally while capping cost and risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $390.00 put + buy $420.00 call
Debit: $53.89-$65.86
Max loss: $65.86
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 324.14 / 485.86
Trigger: Hold through earnings; close if IV crushes or move materializes early.
Cheaper than straddle, suitable for expected earnings move without directional bias.
Outperforms: Profits from large move in either direction with lower upfront cost.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk if spot drops below $300 (put wall), but far from current.
!Earnings overhang 48 days out, low near-term event risk.
!Weekly IV crush post-expiry may pressure option longs.

What to Watch

?Weekly max pain pinning zones: $420, $425, $430.
?Continue monitoring unusual flow at 417.5 and 420 strikes.
?Spot vs $420 resistance; break above opens $430.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.