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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $387.51EOD only
Max Pain
$382.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$20.55
5.3% from close
Price Gap
-5.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Event is ~90 days out, but heavy Apr24–29 activity reflects calendar hedging, index rebalancing and nearby corporate actions that concentrate gamma near-month; baseline confidence 7.5 stands given aligned flow and elevated VIX.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Concentrated Apr24–27 call flow at 372–382 (large prints) implies dealers are short near-term gamma and likely to hedge into those expiries, raising pinning risk.
⚠️Concentrated Apr24–27 call flow (372–382) creates short-gamma pinning risk into expiries
🔎Front-week IV elevated (~35–38%) driven by calendar hedging despite 90‑day event; deep OTM put IV signals tail hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,469 (19.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (90 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$7.60 (2.0%)
  • 2026-04-27 (4d): ±$11.80 (3.2%)
  • 2026-04-29 (6d): ±$15.97 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV is elevated (~35–38%) vs. farther expiries due to concentrated short-gamma and calendar-hedge demand into Apr expiries despite a 90‑day event; distant IV shows tail hedging (deep OTM puts) higher.

Crush estimate: Expected front-week IV crush ~15–30% absolute (1500–3000 bps) on a neutral surprise; larger beats/misses can add ~500–1000 bps variability.

Skew: Put skew steepens OTM; call skew compressed 370–390 where flow clusters, making front IV ~20–60 bps sensitive per 10k-lot print (empirical intraday range).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 40% (2/5); realized moves have been near expected magnitudes when flow is balanced.

Directional bias: Slight bullish tilt from concentrated call demand, but mixed past prints and tail put hedges mute conviction.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $366.12/$381.32; 1w $357.75/$389.70
3Max pain pins: $385 (2026-04-24); $390 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive Apr24/27 372.5–382.5 call prints (>58k per block).

Creates short-call gamma for dealers, increasing delta-hedge flows and pinning risk into those expiries.

Notable Apr29 higher-strike calls and deep OTM put buys.

Simultaneous directional positioning and tail hedging raises skew and amplifies vanna/gamma on stressed moves.

Strategies

Event-dated long call (420C Jul17 2026)
Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call
Debit: $13.79-$16.86
Max loss: $16.86
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $436.86
Trigger: Scale in near large prints, trim into spikes, stop if IV collapses below entry range or share price falls under 348.
Captures bullish call demand and upside if dealers pin/higher prints push spot through strikes.
Outperforms: Directional upside exposure into the 90‑day event; benefits from concentrated call flow/positive repricing of front IV.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.
Long strangle (340P/450C Jul17 2026)
Buy 2026-07-17 $340.00 put + buy $450.00 call
Debit: $21.62-$26.43
Max loss: $26.43
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 313.57 / 476.43
Trigger: Roll wings outward if event pushes heavy week IV lower; take profits on one wing after large directional move.
Cheaper OTM wings exploit elevated front IV and skew while limiting cost vs ATM straddle.
Outperforms: Tail-hedge plus upside asymmetric convexity — wins on large beat/miss or volatility shock.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Pinning risk into 372–385 for Apr24–27 expiries due to concentrated short-gamma
!Front-week IV moves ~20–60 bps per 10k call print; extreme prints can move >100 bps
!Deep OTM put flow signals tail-hedge jump risk if market gap occurs

What to Watch

?Size/timing of Apr24–29 prints (each 10k call print ~20–60 bps front-IV impact)
?Changing Apr24–27 OI and dealer hedging delta into close
?Catalysts: index rebalance notices, corporate action filings, or macro data within the Apr window that would trigger hedge rotations
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.