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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $415.88EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.88
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+19.12
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
36
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 1, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence: market positioned for pinning near $370–$375 into 4/21 earnings; concentrated put OI lower near that band limits downside but raises pin risk if prints surprise on guidance/revs.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Concentrated put OI around $370–$375 + heavy bearish flow implies limited realized move vs implied IV but sharp tail moves possible if revenue/guide/margins deviate.
📌Pinning risk elevated — put OI concentrated ~370–375, likely focal for post-earnings pin.
⚠️Event risks include revenue, guidance and margin commentary — these can override flow-implied pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,999 (12.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (4 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (3d): ±$9.57 (2.4%)
  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$25.70 (6.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$31.75 (7.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV rich vs multi-day; near-dated expirations carry elevated IV (mid-to-high 20s–30s) relative to longer tenors.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush likely material for weeklies (~30–50% of front IV); longer-dated options compress less.

Skew: Put skew elevated centered at ~370–375 with concentrated OI; calls show higher strike interest above $470.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically realized moves have been smaller than implied (lower-than-expected beat frequency).

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias into event driven by protective put buying and spot above major gamma band.

Key Levels

1$350.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $391.04/$410.19; 1w $374.92/$426.32
3Max pain pins: $368 (2026-04-17); $372 (2026-04-20); $370 (2026-04-24)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated unusual put prints and OI clustered at ~$370–$375 across weeklies and dailies.

Dealer hedging around this band increases pinning gamma and limits immediate downside.

Large call OI above $470.

Creates asymmetric upside squeeze potential if momentum follows a positive beat.

Strategies

Put diagonal (sell front, buy back month)
Sell 2026-04-24 $377.50 put / buy 2026-05-15 $380.00 put
Debit: $6.39-$7.81
Max loss: $7.81
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Trim or roll after earnings if spot pins at strikes; cut if trade breaches invalidation ~368.9 or assign risk rises
Captures rich front-week put IV near concentrated OI at 370–375 while hedging downside with May leg
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 377.5 put, buy 5/15 380 put to collect premium and benefit from post-earnings front-week crush while retaining limited protection
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call diagonal (sell short-week, buy month)
Sell 2026-04-24 $420.00 call / buy 2026-05-15 $425.00 call
Debit: $5.06-$6.19
Max loss: $6.19
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close/roll into May if strong upside; cut if price falls through 368.9 invalidation
Exploits richer front-week call IV vs May to harvest term premium with capped risk
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 420 call, buy 5/15 425 call to short near-term IV and keep upside cover
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (front-week)
Sell 2026-04-24 $377.50 put + sell $445.00 call
Credit: $5.49-$6.70
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $6.70
BE: 370.80 / 451.70
Trigger: Avoid or hedge into earnings; close into print or immediately after if IV crush occurs
Highest premium but unlimited upside risk vs pinning risk at 370–375
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 377.5 put + 445 call to collect rich front-week IV
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings drivers beyond flow: revenue, forward guidance, gross margins and unit metrics can trigger large moves
!Higher-than-expected guide cuts or downward revision to bookings/active users → sharp downside
!Positive surprise to revenue/guides or margin beat → gap up against call walls
!Large IV crush if results are in-line
!Gamma flip through concentrated put band can amplify moves

What to Watch

?Top-line revenue vs consensus and forward guide
?Margins, CAC/LTV or unit economics commentary
?Key operational metrics (bookings, users, churn) mentioned on the call
?Flow and volume in 4/20–4/24 puts at $370–$375
?Post-print IV drop magnitude and VIX move >+3
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.