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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

TSLA setup is bullish with strong flow and gamma pinning, but far from earnings (63 days). IV is elevated near term, crush expected post-event. Historical beat rate low (40%) but no clear edge.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Flow is heavily bull-aligned with put selling and call buying; pinning at $412-$415. Gamma flip risk only if spot breaks below $300.
🚨Huge put volume at $412.5; pinning in play?
🟢Call OI wall at $450-$600; upside capped near-term.
⚠️Low historical beat rate (40%); manage expectations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,347 (28.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (63 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$12.60 (3.0%)
  • 2026-05-26 (6d): ±$16.28 (3.9%)
  • 2026-05-27 (7d): ±$18.43 (4.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term (2d) IV at 3.0%, 6d at 3.9%, 7d at 4.4% – increasing with time.

Crush estimate: Post-event IV crush likely significant, estimated ~50-70% decline from current elevated levels.

Skew: Put skewed near expiry; call skewed at longer tenors. Elevated put volume at $410-$412.5 suggests tail hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves have been within expected ranges (beat rate 40%, 2/5 quarters). No consistent overshoot.

Directional bias: No clear directional bias; post-earnings moves mixed.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $404.66/$429.86; 1w $400.99/$433.54
3Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-20); $410 (2026-05-22); $418 (2026-05-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume at $412.5 (83k vol vs 913 OI) and $410 (139k vol vs 2.5k OI) for 5/20 expiry.

Aggressive put selling; dealers delta-neutral, likely pinning spot near $412-$415.

Call buying at $415 (309k vol) and $420 (172k vol) for 5/20 expiry.

Bullish positioning; call OI walls at $450-$600 provide upside resistance.

Strategies

Short Strangle TSLA
Sell 2026-05-22 $400.00 put + sell $440.00 call
Credit: $1.75-$2.14
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.14
BE: 397.86 / 442.14
Trigger: Monitor gamma flip below $300; close if spot breaks $400-$440
No clear bias, pinning at $412-$415, elevated IV, premium decay works
Outperforms: Sell 2026-05-22 $400 put + $440 call, 63 DTE, entry 1.75-2.14
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk if spot drops below $300 (put OI concentration 28.1% below spot).
!IV crush after earnings may hurt long premium positions.
!Low historical beat rate (40%) adds uncertainty.

What to Watch

?Max pain levels: $405 (5/20), $410 (5/22), $418 (5/26). Pinning action likely.
?Key support $405, resistance $447-$450.
?Unusual flow persistence for next few days.
?Gamma flip threshold ~$300 based on put OI.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.