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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $415.88EOD only

Max Pain

$435.00

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.88

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+19.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 1, 2026 close

TSLA Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

7.5/10 — Best strategy is defined-risk premium capture (sell into the elevated front-week vol) or directional debit using long-dated calls if leaning bullish. Primary risk is a guidance/beat-miss driven gap beyond the 1-week EM rails ($374.38/$409.53) that defeats dealer pinning and causes rapid repricing.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Most important: Front-week IV is elevated into earnings while GEX is positive and heavily concentrated around spot — this sets up pinning pressure but leaves large gap risk if fundamentals surprise materially.

📅Earnings on 2026-04-21 (6d out) — use 9–16d expirations for event-light premium capture or 37–93d for calendars/long-dated optionality.

📈GEX +$216.4M concentrated at $390–$400 suggests strong pinning pressure around spot into the release.

⚠️Historical beat rate 25% (1/4) — history does not support a consistent surprise upside, so bullish directional bets should respect that reality.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Bullish

Spot vs MP

Above

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,803 (23.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (6 days)explicit

Expected moves:

2026-04-17 (2d): ±$13.25 (3.4%)
2026-04-20 (5d): ±$17.57 (4.5%)
2026-04-24 (9d): ±$30.45 (7.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front expirations (2026-04-17, 2026-04-20/24) show a kinked term structure: very high ATM IV in the 2–9d window (2026-04-17 ATM ~47% and 2026-04-24 ATM ~58.9%) versus lower mid-dated tenors. The nearest-expiry (<2d) IV is meaningless (5%), then jumps for the event-week tenors.

Crush estimate: High. Expect a large post-release IV compression for the front-week / post-event expirations — roughly front-week IV to mid-dated IV spreads imply a multi-tens of vol-point crush on front expirations (front 2–9d ATM around 47–59% vs 30–50% further out).

Skew: Downside skew is present but calls dominate flow; top premium flow and call OI concentrate below/around the upper EM rail, so upside participation is heavy and call-side supply may cap upside once event passes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: TSLA has underperformed implied beat frequency recently — historical beat rate is 25% (1/4). Market has priced meaningful two-way risk (EM 5d ±$17.57 / 4.5%).

Directional bias: Short-term flow/regime is bullish (net premium +$3.1B, put/call vol 0.54) and GEX is positive (+$216.4M) with dealer pinning near spot, so mechanical bias is toward holding spot near current levels through the event absent a fundamental shock.

Key Levels

1$300.00 gamma flip

2EM guardrails: 2d $378.70/$405.20; 1w $374.38/$409.53

3Max pain pins: $360 (2026-04-15); $358 (2026-04-17); $355 (2026-04-20)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated premium and GEX near spot ($390–$400), heavy call-side premium at 370–380 strikes.

Large call-buying/premium at 370–380 and GEX concentrations at $390/$392.50/$400 create a pin magnet just below/around spot and raise the effectiveness of short-dated premium-selling strategies.

Net premium +$3.1B bullish with put/call volume ratio 0.54 and call OI walls at $400/$470-$500.

Flow is skewed to bullish positioning; dealers are long gamma into the event near current levels which helps limit intraday dispersion but increases the pain of a sudden gap move.

Strategies

Defined-risk short put spread (collect front-week premium)

Sell 2026-04-24 $370.00/$352.50 put spread

Credit: $3.20-$3.92

Max loss: $13.58

Max gain: $3.92

BE: $366.08

Trigger: Manage by closing into the IV drop post-release or rolling/down-sizing if price trades below the short strike or the 2d/1w EM lower bound.

Best risk-adjusted way to harvest rich short-dated premium while respecting positive GEX/pin dynamics and limiting gap exposure.

Outperforms: Sell a put spread sized to short expirations 9–16d with short put near the 25–30 delta and a protective long put ~5 points below — uses front-week elevated IV and dealer pinning to collect premium with capped downside.

Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.

Defined-range iron condor across event-week expirations

Sell 2026-04-24 $365.00/$345.00 put wing and $430.00/$455.00 call wing

Credit: $5.09-$6.23

Max loss: $18.77

Max gain: $6.23

BE: 358.77 / 436.23

Trigger: Close into IV collapse after earnings or widen/roll wings if price approaches either short strike; tighten sizing relative to portfolio to handle gap risk.

If you believe TSLA stays within the tight 2d–1w EM rails, a balanced iron condor captures front volatility with defined wings and limited capital use.

Outperforms: Sell call and put spreads in the 9–16d window with wings outside the 1-week EM bounds (put wings below ~$374, call wings above ~$409) to limit worst-case losses while harvesting concentrated IV.

Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High. A guidance beat/miss can produce a gap beyond the 1-week EM rails ($374.38/$409.53) and overwhelm dealer pinning despite positive GEX.

!IV crush: High for front-week expirations — long-vol buyers may be caught by immediate IV collapse if move is small; premium-sellers must manage gamma during intraday volatility spikes.

!Liquidity: Good in near-term strikes around $370–$400 (high OI/flow), but lower liquidity on tails and some multi-week expirations — widen sizing and watch quotes.

!Sizing: Reduce notional vs normal because short strangles/credit spreads can be wiped out by a single guidance shock; prefer defined-risk structures or small naked positions with robust stop rules.

What to Watch

?Movement of IV in the 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-24 expirations relative to the 16–37d tenors (steepness signals willingness to pay for front-week vol).

?Price action around the GEX pin concentrations at $390.00, $392.50 and $400.00 — sustained break above/below these levels indicates dealer re-hedging and potential gamma flip behavior.

?Unusual flow into calls at 370–380 strikes (top premium flow) — continued heavy call buying may lift spot into resistance near $405 and trigger short-covering.

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.