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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $435.79EOD only
Max Pain
$435.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.82
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
62
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

TSLA is in a high-vol, pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$84.6M) and spot sitting at max pain ($350). Best strategy for most traders: neutral premium sale sized carefully into the 2–7d expected move (sell premium around the $350/$360 area). Key risk: an earnings/guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 2d EM rails ($343.70 / $361.15), which would blow past dealer pinning and produce large directional moves.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX pinning (+$84.6M); +1 spot near max pain (0.7% from MP); -1 flow mixed/net premium -$26.2M; +0.5 VIX 19.1
Most important: Whether spot holds near the $350 max-pain / GEX concentrations (352.50 / 350 / 347.50) into earnings — if it pins, premium sellers win; if it breaks, dealers shift from pinning to amplifying beyond the EM rails.
📌Max pain pinned at $350 across multiple near expirations (04-13, 04-15) while spot is $352.42.
⚖️Dealer GEX concentrated +$45.1M at $352.50 — expect pinning behavior unless a large gap occurs.
🔍Upcoming earnings window shows front-end IV elevated (2d 34.5%, 4d 38.6%) — ideal for either disciplined premium sales or small long-vol plays sized for tail events.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (Avg IV 56.4%; near-term ATM 34.5% at 2d)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$84.6M; large +45.1M concentration at $352.50)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net premium -$26.2M; P/C vol 0.79)
Spot vs MP
At (spot $352.42 vs max pain $350)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip ~ $300 (well below spot) — below that, dealer positioning becomes a breakout accelerant; not actionable within ±10% band.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (TBD) (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (2d): 7$8.72 (2.5%) [$343.70 - $361.15]
  • 2026-04-20 (7d): 7$14.72 (4.2%) [$337.70 - $367.15]
  • 2026-05-01 (18d): 7$31.00 (8.8%) [$321.42 - $383.42]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp near-term term structure: ATM 2d 34.5% → 4d 38.6% → 11d 51.9% then levels ~45-48% out further. Immediate expirations show a kink around the 4/15-4/17 window.

Crush estimate: ~3-6 vol pts; front-end IV sits 34–39% (2–4d) and will likely reprice down toward the mid-30s post-event (e.g., 4d ATM 38.6% → back to ~34%).

Skew: Put-rich flows at some strikes (heavy put premium at $360 and large put OI at $300/$200 long-dated), but near-term skew shows mixed richness: large call premium flow at $340/$350 coexists with large put bids at $360 and concentrated put OI at $340.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-12-31 beat; 3 misses)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit realized-move table provided; guidance from history shows inconsistent surprises and limited ability to outsize EM systematically.

Directional bias: Mixed (recent surprises both directions); available: true

Key Levels

1$347.50
2$350.00
3$352.50
4$360.00
5$365.00
6$370.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $340 and $350 (Top Premium Flow: $350 Call $118,406,271 / Put $54,211,666 net call $64,194,604; $340 Call $106,384,060 / Put $13,391,864 net call $92,992,196).

Aggressive bullish/call buying interest concentrated below current spot — short-term directional call hedges or structured buy-side exposure that can create resistance if unwound near those strikes, but also suggests dealers are selling calls into these levels (supporting pinning near $350).

Large put premium concentrated at $360 (Top Premium Flow shows net put at $360 of $-64,000,606 and chain shows big put IV/prices at $360 for near expirations).

Significant downside protection or downside-leaning speculative flow around $360 — if those puts were bought, they can flip dynamic hedges and create asymmetric downside pressure if spot approaches/clears $360.

Strategies

Short strangle (aggressive premium sell)
Sell 04-15 350 Put and 04-15 350 Call (short 350P / short 350C) — short 2d strangle centered on max pain
Credit: $8.50-$9.50
Max loss: Unlimited (naked legs) / large
Max gain: $9.50
BE: $341.50 / $359.50
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before expiration if spot remains pinned near $350 and IV doesn't spike from current 34–38% range
High GEX pinning and multiple GEX concentrations at $352.50/$350/$347.50 plus max pain favor short premium across the $350 center; premium available on the 2d front is rich relative to realized risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 2d EM rails [$343.70 - $361.15] and dealer pinning holds
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the breakeven range (large gap or surprise guidance) or IV spikes further before entry
Long ATM straddle (front-end directional/vol bet)
Buy 04-15 352.50 Straddle (buy 352.50 Call + buy 352.50 Put)
Debit: $8.50-$9.50
Max loss: $9.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $343.00 / $362.00
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if you expect a move >2d EM or if IV hasn't retraced; size small due to front-end IV and potential crush
EM (2d) ±$8.72 lines up with straddle breakevens; this is a pure volatility/move play when you anticipate a gap/large reaction that overwhelms dealer pinning.
Outperforms: Actual post-event move exceeds the 2d EM by >20–30% (big beat/miss or guidance surprise)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $350 and IV collapses; small beats that stay near MP
Directional call spread (defined-risk bullish)
Buy 04-20 355 Call / Sell 04-20 360 Call (debit 5-point vertical)
Debit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $2.20
Max gain: $2.80
BE: $357.80
Trigger: Enter if market/stock prints sustainably above $355 with positive market tape or if IV cheapens after a pin and you want defined-risk upside into next weekly
Defined-risk way to buy upside inside the 7d EM rails ($337.70 - $367.15) while limiting exposure to immediate IV crush.
Outperforms: Moderate upside through $360 before or shortly after earnings without a rally exceeding 7–8%
Underperforms: Stock stays below $355 or gaps down; large upside >$360 reduces return but still profitable up to $360

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EPS/guidance surprise or macro news can drive a gap beyond the 2d EM rails ($343.70 / $361.15); short-premium positions are vulnerable to gaps.
!IV crush: Front-end IV is elevated (2d ATM 34.5% → 4d 38.6%); long vol will still face post-event IV drop (estimated ~3–6 vol pts), reducing profitability for smaller moves.
!Liquidity: Chains are liquid at near-term strikes (large OI at 350/355/360), but wide spreads on very OTM strikes can increase execution cost; use mid/limit pricing.
!Sizing: Because GEX is strongly positive (+$84.6M) and pinning is likely, keep short-premium sizing limited to avoid tail risk from a directional gap; defined-risk spreads preferred for larger sizes.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 04-15 / 04-17 expirations (watch ATM IV: 2d 34.5% → 4d 38.6% for further skew shifts).
?Spot vs concentrated GEX levels at $352.50 / $350 / $347.50 — any drift away from these levels changes the edge.
?Unusual activity at short-dated puts/calls (notably heavy volume around 04-13/04-15 strikes in the unusual activity list).
?Flow at $340/$350 (heavy call premium) and net put premium at $360 — signs of directional hedging that can reverse quickly.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.